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Opinions Barry Schwartz
Cineplex IncCGX.TOCOMMENTOct 16, 2017
Barry SchwartzStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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Covid hammered them, while a British company tried to buy them but aborted that deal (now in a lawsuit). It's not cheap seeing a movie, but he goes now and then. Movies are coming back, though. You can't duplicate the experience at home. Still a lot of uncertainty with this stock, though.
Revenue growth is coming back a bit, with lower comparables from last year helping the year-over-year figures. Its debt levels are high, with net debt of $1.9B, and a net debt/EBITDA of 6.8X. Interest costs are $137M (last 12 months) and these will likely rise a bit with higher rates. 12-month cash flow was $116M and therein lies the problem. The debt is mostly due in the next five years. With attendance back, and a decent film slate, bankruptcy is becoming less of a concern, but it is still hard to paint a really positive picture here because of the leverage.
It is somewhat cheap (0.4X forward sales), but also has a fairly high forward P/E of 20.2X. It could become a takeover target, however, we would not place a high level of probability on that at these current levels.
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Cineplex remains a recovery story, and its beta of 2.88 signals more risk than usual. It rose 10% in Q1, but the chart was choppy. So, consider Cineplex a partial buy. After all, Covid didn’t kill cinema-going, as some expected, but deferred it. We still love the big screen. Read Dark horses: Nuvei, Cineplex, Boralex for our full analysis.
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It’s been nasty being a shareholder this year. It had a disastrous summer. There weren’t any good movies. Box office returns were down anywhere from 10% to 15%, which is going to hurt their bottom line. It looks like it will end the year down 1%-2% on the box office. The 2018 slate looks promising. They’ve done a great job in raising ticket prices, raising prices on food, and are light years ahead of the US competition, because they’ve expanded into other areas. Thinks they are going to be very successful. Will benefit from Sears and Target closing up shops, as they will be able to negotiate pretty good leases and acquire big sites to launch their entertainment centres. Even at $38, it is not a cheap stock, however it has a great business model. As the movies pick up, it can go a lot higher. 4.3% dividend yield.