Cardinal Energy Ltd (CJ.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Cardinal Energy Ltd (CJ.TO)

10.84

+0.21 (1.98%)

as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

166 watching

WAIT

A more levered up energy company. It has become historically cheap. Trades at 0.4 times book. He needs to see price momentum turn before getting in.

HOLD

A small-cap heavy oil producer that has done well. For a large institutional buyer, there is just not enough liquidity. They did increase the dividend and they are buying back stock. Yield 5.8%

HOLD

The basing in the stock price is similar with the energy sector as a whole. He sees a potential back to $4-$5. He does not see much correlation with the underlying commodity price.

DON'T BUY

Is a light and medium oil producer. This was a $15 stock 5 years ago. It is very cheap. Their dividend is very sustainable at $57-60 oil values. It is undervalued but there may be other opportunities elsewhere. It is an example of how the small cap companies are challenged in Canada. You probably want to invest where the money is going to go first which is not this name.

DON'T BUY

They had to cut their dividend. Book value is $6.17. It does not have enough money to reinvest. The balance sheet has a lot of debt. They are going into survival mode. When the recovery happens in perhaps Q4 this year, then this kind of company will survive and perhaps raise the dividend soon after.

BUY

He sees a bit of a bump in the shares this year. He thinks it will get to $3.50 this year. It is heavy and medium oil. It has a lot more headwinds than a light oil producer. They had to trim their dividend.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.

WATCH

They decided to cut the dividend until they see much better netbacks. The stock has been murdered. It’s on his watch list. It will require a lot of patience. They are in a bomb shelter right now.

SELL

They right-sized the dividend, maybe a little too early as the heavy differentials have tightened recently. It is trading at a slight discount to a Torc (TOG-T). He would sell it to take a tax loss and take on TOG-T to get a good yield and higher quality management team.

COMMENT

Their dividend payout is not sustainable at current levels. But correction in differential and $60 crude will keep the payout sustainable which he thinks will happen.

HOLD

2 years out from now the stock should be significantly higher. They may struggle in the next quarter. They have low decline rates. Their main goal is to keep their dividend safe. If the oil differential continues longer term, then they may have to cut dividend, but it is safe in the near term. Yield = 14%

DON'T BUY

He sold it along with all his oil Canadian stocks last year. Dividend is safe. Good operators. They're dependent on Alberta oil and WCS, which will suffer a low price for a while.

HOLD

This company has struggled to gain investor interest and he believes it will continue to do so despite the high yield. It is about 50% light oil so its exposure to wide differentials is limited. He thinks the dividend is sustainable. Yield 9.2%.

DON'T BUY

A year ago this stock looked very low and the commodity price was low, however, the companies in this sector were still making money. He thinks there will be good returns in the sector, but he prefers more torque with companies that will benefit from tighter heavy oil differentials.

TOP PICK

Underappreciated, he thinks, and is torqued to oil (80% of production). He thinks WTI will be sustained between $70-$80 per barrel. A great dividend yield. Yield 8%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.75)

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