Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

He prefers Suncor, rumoured to be held back by massive selling by the Saudis. He expects SU to outperform CNQ. CNQ outperformed last year. Its valuation is better than SU, but he expects SU to outperform.

The whole reflation trade is a trade. Oil stocks have been beaten down for a while. For a trade, the energy price pop is good. However, as a long term trend, they are not investable since there is a move away from traditional energy. He has no preference between CNQ or SU. He is overweight energy right now.

He would prefer SU for the dividend but there is risk that it will be cut. CNQ is a little more natural gas as well.

CNQ would be better for dividend sustainability. They have less maintenance requirements on their properties, a better run company. There is better inside ownership. He owns both. At $60 oil, CNQ will have 18% free cashflow yield. Suncor has less leverage due to refining exposure.

The Painted Pony transaction is immaterial in the grand scheme of things for CNQ. CNQ is a well-run company. It could probably double from here with their cashflow break even being at $27 for maintenance cap-ex. A very well-run and cheap large cap. He just prefers small cap.

It does not have downstream operations, but is trading at the same valuation as SU-T. He would give it a pass. There was a sell signal three weeks ago. Wait for a positive transit.

Suncor vs. CNQ Both great Canadian energy stocks. He has owned Suncor and currently owns CNQ as his only energy stock. CNQ maintained its dividend throughout the lockdown, while he believes Suncor lowered theirs to protect their balance sheet. He likes CNQ in energy---you still get a nice yield. Suncor and CNQ will do well long term. Suncor will do well if the energy space improves. He owns 3.5-4% energy on the low side, but you don't want to own too much or too little energy. About two years ago, SU's refining assets were doing really well and got a premium valuations, so maybe that's why the stock has unwound recently.

Suncor and CNQ SU cut their dividend. It is a bellwether energy stock. Refining margins are tough which hurts SU. He owns CNQ instead; it didn't cut its dividend. SU stock is okay now with oil prices in the low-$40s, but could weaked in the fall. He's not adding his energy exposure. The bigger picture is: how much oil do you want in your portfolio. He owns CNQ and recommends that in the mid-$20s. Oil offers decent risk/reward given base demand, but wait till the fall to see if demand declines due to a COVID uptick. Oil depends on whether shale oil receives capital support and shale decline has been the game-changer in the last few months. Overall, SU is fine, but if you're switching into CNQ, now's the time to do it.

She owns no oil names and won't re-enter it. But CNQ would be one of the top names if she does return to oil. They just bought Painted Pony, so they can afford to buy assets at cyclical lows like now. They expand opportunistically.