CVS Health Corp (CVS)

She is going to continue holding this, even though Amazon (AMZN-Q) may enter the mail order drug delivery space. Feels they are well positioned. They have the infrastructure and their PBM service, so can compete if they have to. The multiple has really contracted, trading at about 12X forward earnings. There are rumours that CVS may buy a health insurance company, possibly Aetna, which has caused the stock to pull back. They are virtually integrating in that whole chain, and will eventually derive more scripts and more services into their retail network, which will help lower overall hospital costs.

This has responded to the Amazon (AMZN-Q) factor. They are rumoured to be talking to Aetna for a takeover. That would create a vertically integrated business model. If they can create a model where the patient experience is owned by the CVS group, then people are less and less likely to want to interrupt that relationship. That is the response we are starting to see.

The biggest problem is Amazon. You have to ask, how does Amazon come into this type of market and destroy a business. If you’re in industries that Amazon can touch, there is a lot of fear. It’ll be hard to say how tough CVS's moat is and how they will be able to compete going forward. This screens very well on a valuation basis, and is compelling to look at, but with the Amazon factor of going into different industries and being very competitive, that is on a lot of people's minds. That overhang can be there for quite a while.

There is a lot happening. You have everything from an Amazon factor with the PBM's, to the challenging brick-and-mortar at the front. He’s stayed away from staples category this fall. It hasn't worked technically. There’s been a number of headwinds. If you own this, consider using it as an offset to your gains.

It is one of the ones she likes. There have been a lot of mergers and acquisitions. It would be interesting if they can merge and get additional synergies. This is an interesting entry point.

There are a couple things going on. A lot of generics are hurting the stock, and same-store sales have been very difficult over the last while. Amazon (AMZ-Q) supposedly moving in on pharmaceuticals has been hurting. The talk of doing a merger with Aetna would create a fair bit of dilution, and people are worried about that. He would be a buyer. Retail over the long-term is a very strong business.

These types of stocks have all been hit for a few reasons. There are too many pharmacies in the US. The dispensing margin is being narrowed, so margins are also being hit. Also, the threat of Amazon is hovering over the pharmacy business. He still sees headwinds.

This had a Sell signal on his system last week. It had a negative transit of UV+3. He would sell this.

It is consolidating and is a really good example of a base. You know to sell it if it breaks down 3% below the trading range for 3 weeks. If it breaks to the upside 3 weeks, 3% to the upside, then you should buy it.

In many cases this is a Trump Administration story. Drug stocks have come off significantly, along with the companies that sell drugs to the American consumer. There has been a recovery in a lot of the drug stocks, and he’s not 100% convinced that Americans want to give up Obamacare. Ultimately, this is a story of drug price inflation and the attempts of the government to rein costs in. Longer-term, it is an interesting story, but a very thin margin business. If you get a small drop in profitability, stocks tend to come back significantly. This may be a buying opportunity, but for him the margins are a little skinny and not on his radar.

This is a company that he likes, and with the stock price dropping makes it even better. There has been a lot of outside pressure in the space. However, the results are actually quite good. This is more about what people think is going to happen but hasn’t actually happened yet. The returns are very good.

Down 15%. Hold or Sell? He would probably get rid of this. 15% is something you never want to lock in, but at the same time you can use this to offset any capital gains in other positions. This is in a sector that is technically broken.

It is down. Earnings are expected to increase next year. It will likely recover because it is trading at 12 times earnings. He would be a buyer.

This whole space has been challenged, as well as a bit of an Amazon (AMZN-Q), but doubts that will happen. As we get older, people are taking more and more pills. However, we are moving away from patented medicines towards generics, which have lower margins attached to them. About a 3^rd of their business is dedicated to a Pharmacy Benefit Manager, an insurance middleman, to act on behalf of individuals to get better prices. They have 10,000 locations in the US, including deals with Target. Bought Omnicare, which services old-age homes. Will write over a billion subscriptions in 2017.

(A Top Pick July 28/16. Down 13%.) This has slipped because of some concerns of the pharmacy benefit management industry in the US. The valuation is still very, very compelling. It trades at a deep discount to the S&P 500 at about 13X earnings.