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Stockchase Opinions

Michael SprungElement Fleet ManagementEFN.TOCOMMENTJul 15, 2016

This has been positioned in a unique line of financing that makes it stand out. The only problem he has is the valuation. As a value investor, he finds it very difficult to pay for future growth without using a fairly severe discount rate on it. You have to take a longer-term view of the stock. This contains a great component of companies in a rather unique area.

$14.18

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$28.16

As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.

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WAIT

He's pretty conservative on the economy. Haven't seen full impact of higher rates. Good performance, but in a riskier space. Don't chase at these levels. Be cautious. Instead, earn 4.8% on your cash for 6 months, see how things go.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 19/22, Up 19%)

Getting up into large cap territory. Economic for companies to outsource to them. 14x earnings. Yield almost 3%.

WAIT

Really good run. Very good business, with good ROE. He'd wait for a pullback. Not a bargain right now. Recession risk.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

EPS of $0.31 beat estimates of $0.27 and revenues of $303.96M beat estimates of $282.22M. Net revenue grew by 16.5% for the quarter and it generated $0.37 of free cash flow per share for the quarter. Its capital-light business model expanded its ROE to 12.0%, and management raised its full-year 2023 guidance for net revenue, operating margin, adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS, free cash flow per share, and originations. It pays a yield close to 2%, has demonstrated strong margin expansion, forward estimates for growth are good, and it trades at a reasonable valuation. It does have a high net debt balance of $9.4B, but these were strong results and the market has reacted positively so far. We would consider the stock buyable at this time while being mindful of position sizing and the company's balance sheet risks.
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TOP PICK

Capital light, free cashflowing, cleaner story for investors. Valuation still reasonable. Supply chains easing allows them to deliver on backlog of contracts. Fix up cars, so it's downside protection and inflation-protected. Inflation does eat into some of their margins. Should perform well over the next few years, and valuation should expand. Focused on becoming data-centric to better serve its clients. Global. Yield is 2.27%.

(Analysts’ price target is $23.33)
BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

EFN pays a dividend yield of 2.2%, has shown decent growth over the past year, and has a strong profit margin. 
Its valuation is reasonable (6.2X forward P/S and 15.9X forward P/E). 
Its net debt of $8.9B relative to its equity position of $3.7B is somewhat concerning, although the company generates some positive free cash flows. Aside from its somewhat weak balance sheet, its margins and revenue growth look decent, and we would consider the stock buyable at this time while being mindful of position sizing and the company's balance sheet risks.  
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TOP PICK

Average investors don't know about company.
Very undervalued company.
Excellent management with good assets.
Fantastic niche position. 
Strong business model going forward.

TOP PICK
Still room to run. Growing in NA, with a significant presence in NZ and Australia. Cross-selling services to customers and growing customer count. Can enter new markets such as Mexico. Growth has been 20%, 15x multiple. Growth rate could slow, but multiple can still expand. Yield is 2.05%. (Analysts’ price target is $22.08)
TOP PICK
NA's largest fleet manager, also in Australia. Steadily executing. Nice, solid growth story. Even after the runup, trading at 15x, going higher. Yield is 1.72%. (Analysts’ price target is $19.36)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 28/19, Up 11%) An example of looking 12 months out. Good cashflow. Leader in fleet management. Lets corporate customers outsource that task. Earnings are going up. Trades at 10x earnings. Stock will do well no matter what the market's doing.
TOP PICK
They had changed some key management positions, which has cleaned the company up along with the balance sheet over the past couple of quarters. It trades at about 12 times earnings and earnings are growing by 20% next year. It is also a play on Amazon as there are rumours they will provide more fleet equipment to them and perhaps even receive some financial backing from them. Yield 1.42% (Analysts’ price target is $13.91)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
More upside? He took profit a while ago. It has great price momentum, but the low ROE, high valuation metrics, and high debt levels make it look very expensive. He would like to see it pullback before buying in again.
TOP PICK
New management team has done quite well this year. NA's leading fleet manager. Recently had a debt upgrade, so this will add to its profitability. Nice free cashflow. Small, but growing, dividend. Trades at only 11x next year's earnings. Yield is 1.57%. (Analysts’ price target is $13.86)
WATCH
They just had a pretty solid quarter. They are doing some cost-cutting and achieved greater than targeted results. They are on the higher risk end of the spectrum but with these results it is looking interesting.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Up 53%) He had to stomach a lot of volatility to hang onto it. He took some losses initially. 18 months ago they went into a leasing venture with an American company that didn't work out. EFN was a favourite short on the market, bottoming around $3. But it's the #1 fleet manager in North America and Australia, a great business which generates a ton of free cash flow. New managers have turned EFN around, fixing the balance sheet.