Dennis GartmanFreeport McMoran Copper & GoldFCXTOP PICKApr 16, 2009

Copper supplies are really challenged. Copper is needed for the next 20-year cycle of de-carbonization. As big as it is, could be a takeover target. Beat on Q3, left 3-year guidance unchanged. Moderating costs. Good balance sheet. Trading 18x, he models 22% growth. On PEG, works well. Yield is 1.5%.

Likes it for the infrastructure build-out. Costs are falling while supply-demand is tight. 

Geopolitical concerns a worry for this business. Country risk must be taken into account. However, assets are valuable. If looking for copper exposure, could be a good option. Investors must weigh risk vs. reward. Good business model with significant free cash flow. Copper also a cyclical business. 

FCX is down 12% this year, as investors adjust to a possible recession, high rates, a strong US dollar and a slowdown in China. 3Q earnings were good, but Indonesia's shifting regulatory issues are causing concerns. N. American production will need to improve it is to meet its production goals this year. Its peers have been weak, but it is more expensive than many at 21X earnings. We still consider it a very good stock for copper exposure. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

He used to own this. Copper prices are in a sideways trend, going nowhere.

He just sold it, because he expects a recession and not a soft landing. Copper prices were falling until this week, due to weakening demand despite the need for copper in EVs. FCX was always a trading stock.

Copper is trending up and he expects a new stage of growth due to EVs.

A polarizing stock, because they mine copper. Bulls says this is the battery metal of the future that'll help green the grid. True. Bears say copper is tied to the economic cycle, which is slowing now. In fact, manufacturing has been slowing for 8 months. They had good mines in the US and Indonesia and have scale. He doesn't want copper now.

Likes the materials space, an early-cycle winner. Chart in a sideways pattern, but metrics look decent.

He's in base metals, a timely play. Big US player. His play to get copper exposure. The story is really all about China, whether they come back, and how fast. 

Copper production company - one of the largest in world (~8% of world production).
Reserves of over 100 billion.
Copper demand rising with electric vehicles etc.
Excellent company with strong management.
Strong balance sheet and business fundamentals.
Expecting copper prices to rise.
Current share price presenting a good time to buy. 

Her time horizon is long, as much as 10 years.. Copper prices may be weak now, but EVs will continue to drive demand. Also, after 2023, there are almost no copper mines coming online. She's happy to hold this for 5 years.

He just sold it because revenue growth has plunged, down 15% last quarter and 8% the last 12 months. Copper is touching the lowest price of the year.

Up 41% vs. copper's 18% in the past 6 months. They just reported a beat, but the share price has gotten ahead of itself. She will hold this growth stock forever. As we make more EV's they will need copper. Unbelievable demand for the very long term.

She just bought. Supply/demand for copper is good. China's reopening helps increase demand. Good balance sheet as they lower debt. Trades at 8x EBITDA, attractive. Volatile, though. Start with a small position, watch earnings, and add to weakness.