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Stockchase Opinions

Jon VialouxiShares Russell 2000 ETFIWMPAST TOP PICKMar 09, 2020

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Down 19%) Mid-Dec to early-March is seasonality when it outperforms the market--which is something you want, not merely making market gains. However, this year, there wasn't buying demand for small caps. He sold this.
$130.36

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$295.20

As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.

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WEAK BUY

RSP is not overly exposed to just tech and communications. IWM at market weight has performed much better than RSP. But we're hopefully going to see some rotation. RSP is a great idea, and there are similar tickers that trade on the Canadian side.

IWM has the smallest 2000 companies out of the Russell 3000, underperforming. Small cap should perform better with steady or falling interest rates, as they tend to be more levered.

His portfolio style favours the mid- and large-cap names, but small caps can do well in a lower-rate environment.

TOP PICK

20% off all time share price high.
Market rally will lift shares to new records.
Small cap indexes presenting opportunity.
Better diversity in companies that make up index. 

TRADE

Financials, energy and utilities will see a catch-up trade in the second half of 2023. Certain cyclicals will perform. IWM saw good support at $180 and could top at $195-199. But the Russell 2000 is extremely sensitive to interest rates, and a third of the index is not profitable (those companies). The GDP is also expanding, though, but she thinks GDP will slow while rates stay at 5-5.5%. Overall, not a great environment for small caps and cyclicals. But there will be a catch-up trade in cyclicals in Q3, then it peters out.

COMMENT
A lot of put-buying last Friday and today we're seeing those returns. The first trade he saw today were 30,000 IWM puts. IWM covers the Russell 2000, down 4% today as of noon.
DON'T BUY
Half of the companies in this index don't make any money. Only works when speculation and economic growth is in front of us. Not the moment to buy. Mid-cap companies ETFs like the S&P 600 are more interesting.
BUY
IWM small-caps, healthcare, banks and real estate. He's moving into small-caps for the next 12 months, doing less trading and more long-term investing.
COMMENT
You could buy the reverse, RWM, if you want to short the IWM. There is no leverage and it is an 1-1 inverse fund.
COMMENT
IF the economy is expanding, why are small caps underperforming? He uses the IWM as a proxy or hedge to emerging markets. IWM is in purgatory since rates peaked in the spring. No, IWM isn't falling off a cliff, but the future of smallcaps is unknown.
COMMENT
If the economy is expanding now, this could be a great economic opening, so why are small caps underperforming? He uses the IWM as a proxy and sometimes a hedge to emerging markets, because EM growth has been often tied to U.S. small-cap growth. IWM is in purgatory ever since rates peaked in the spring. No, IWM isn't falling off a cliff now and there could be re-acceleration, but the future of smallcaps is unknown.
COMMENT
As a barometer of the Russell smallcap index He's too deep in value which had a nice bounce, but investors then reversed that trend to go back into growth. IWM has been in a trading range, sideways, but it touched the 200-day moving average and did not break down, so it means it is building strength. Interest rates need to rise for IWM and the Russell 2000 to break out.
WEAK BUY

It gained today. It's an important indicator, reflecting the Russell smallcaps. Last September, the Russell and IWM exploded up, but since January this has been rangebound at $210-235. AMC, healthcare, financials, industrials and tech dominate the IWM. If this breaks $235, then the S&P is off to the races.

TOP PICK
Small cap stocks in the US. It has been hit the hardest. It is a great place to come out of this. Buy it lower than today.
TOP PICK
This is the catch-up trade, anticipating the rotation from the winners to the losers. The Russell has underperformed this year but has just broken out. There was a massive consolidation this summer. He wouldn't be surprised if a wider pullback, pulled this back too. Nov.9-April 3 is seasonality for the Russell 2000.
DON'T BUY
Look at the 2-year chart, which is not reaching new highs like the rest of the American market. Instead, buy the strongest index, the S&P. Also look at a mid-vol or low-volatility US ETF for safety. Avoid cyclicality.