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Eli Lilly & Co.LLYBUYNov 13, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Novo and Eli Lilly have both run up, but there's still more room to go, given the strong demand for their weight-loss drug. Insurers will probably pay for these drugs, because without them consumers couldn't afford them. Sure, others are developing their own drugs, but it's not easy. Pfizer just announced it's giving up.
A winner over the last year. Obesity drugs are going to be everywhere, and sales estimates keep increasing. Valuation's moved very high on momentum. Catalyst for the next decade or longer will be pill form (set for approval in 2024) vs. injection, as well as tweaks to performance. The stock will trade on drug performance and market sentiment.
The weight-loss jobs are the biggest innovation in pharma since the Covid vaccine. By market cap, LLY is the most important drug company in the world. Their Ozempic drug has been a huge successful, reducing weight and heart attacks. A negative side effect likely would have turned up by now, so he expect sales volume to keep rising, up to over $120 billion annually.
He strongly disagrees with some analysts who say that the new weight-loss drugs won't move the needles of their company stocks. He expects huge demand for these drugs to battle diabetes, which would prevent many other diseases. He sees a lot of runway ahead for LLY and Novo Nordisk.