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Lightstream ResourcesLTS.TOCOMMENTNov 23, 2012Stock price when the opinion was issued
At these prices, you are betting that the company doesn’t have to restructure before oil prices recover. He thinks we are in the middle of a bounce in oil that will retrace a little bit. In the near term he is cautious on oil, but in the 2nd half of the year thinks we are going to get a sustainable recovery in oil prices. This company is going to be challenged, but you are at about $1.50 right now. It is like a bit of an option right now, in that you are betting on a recovery before a restructuring.
SHORT. This has come down a lot already and he thinks it continues to drift down to $0.20, and maybe even lower. Their big problem is that they have a lot of debt. They are trying desperately to shore up their balance sheet and sell their south east Bakken lands, with no real luck. Debt to cash flow is 7.1X. Have already slashed their CapX budget by 61% and the dividend by 63%.
Generating a fairly good yield. Her only knock on the story is that they have about 4 to 5 times debt to cash flow, which is on the high side for her. They do have more room on their line so that is not a threat. Good management. A lot of the Petrobank (PBG-T) selling is anticipated in the stock already so if you like the stock you could Buy it here. Yielding 8.5% but there are a lot of other names you could go to such as Crescent Point (CPG-T) or Baytex (BTE-T) which yield less but are better quality and have less debt.