50% off Premium Yearly
Lightstream ResourcesLTS.TOCOMMENTJan 09, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
At these prices, you are betting that the company doesn’t have to restructure before oil prices recover. He thinks we are in the middle of a bounce in oil that will retrace a little bit. In the near term he is cautious on oil, but in the 2nd half of the year thinks we are going to get a sustainable recovery in oil prices. This company is going to be challenged, but you are at about $1.50 right now. It is like a bit of an option right now, in that you are betting on a recovery before a restructuring.
SHORT. This has come down a lot already and he thinks it continues to drift down to $0.20, and maybe even lower. Their big problem is that they have a lot of debt. They are trying desperately to shore up their balance sheet and sell their south east Bakken lands, with no real luck. Debt to cash flow is 7.1X. Have already slashed their CapX budget by 61% and the dividend by 63%.
High decline rates led people to believe the dividend was not sustainable. Did a good job of divesting non-core assets. Debt to cash flow is about 2 times, which would be high historically but balance sheets in the sector have ballooned out. Balance sheet is not bad but decline rates are a little high because they are very aggressive drillers. Getting to be pretty compelling and would probably be looking to increase his weighting. Trading at about 4X cash flow, which is remarkably cheap given the rate of growth they’ve been achieving. Also have 4 plays they will be delineating later this year.