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Lightstream ResourcesLTS.TODON'T BUYJan 21, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
At these prices, you are betting that the company doesn’t have to restructure before oil prices recover. He thinks we are in the middle of a bounce in oil that will retrace a little bit. In the near term he is cautious on oil, but in the 2nd half of the year thinks we are going to get a sustainable recovery in oil prices. This company is going to be challenged, but you are at about $1.50 right now. It is like a bit of an option right now, in that you are betting on a recovery before a restructuring.
SHORT. This has come down a lot already and he thinks it continues to drift down to $0.20, and maybe even lower. Their big problem is that they have a lot of debt. They are trying desperately to shore up their balance sheet and sell their south east Bakken lands, with no real luck. Debt to cash flow is 7.1X. Have already slashed their CapX budget by 61% and the dividend by 63%.
Cheap at 5.6X discounted adjusted cash flow but are in a bit of the downward spiral. Just cut their CapX markedly from about $900 million to about $675 million. That means they have lower production, which means less cash flow so their debt to cash flow is now at about 3.6, way past the danger zone. Peer average is about 2.5. Might have to cut dividends if prices don’t start to turn around.