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Lightstream ResourcesLTS.TOSELLJul 23, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
At these prices, you are betting that the company doesn’t have to restructure before oil prices recover. He thinks we are in the middle of a bounce in oil that will retrace a little bit. In the near term he is cautious on oil, but in the 2nd half of the year thinks we are going to get a sustainable recovery in oil prices. This company is going to be challenged, but you are at about $1.50 right now. It is like a bit of an option right now, in that you are betting on a recovery before a restructuring.
SHORT. This has come down a lot already and he thinks it continues to drift down to $0.20, and maybe even lower. Their big problem is that they have a lot of debt. They are trying desperately to shore up their balance sheet and sell their south east Bakken lands, with no real luck. Debt to cash flow is 7.1X. Have already slashed their CapX budget by 61% and the dividend by 63%.
Yield is close to 12% and implicitly the market is trying to tell you the dividend is not safe. Debt levels are high. Has always been concerned how hard this company has run and, as a direct result, how high the decline rate has been. There are better places to put your money.