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MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC Common StockMDLZPAST TOP PICKOct 10, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
It pulled back due to a new obesity drug with concerns that this may reduce consumption of their products which are mainly snacks - it leads in biscuits and chocolate. However there is lots of brand loyalty and it is branching out into different categories. There is long term growth with 35% of its revenue coming from emerging markets. It is at a good entry point.
#1 global share in biscuits. #2 in chocolate, and growing its share. Very little private label competition in biscuits and chocolate, huge brand loyalty. A name to own for the decade. Increased both prices and volume. EM is higher growth, but cyclical. Divesting and redeploying capital. Raised EPS guidance to 12% YOY. Reasonable multiple. Yield is 2.38%.
(Analysts’ price target is $82.44)#1 in biscuits and #2 in chocolate behind Mars and gaining share. Benefited during Covid when people ate more snacks. Consumers keep buying established brands like theirs. They raised prices and have pricing power, so volumes rose. Expanding into cake and pastries and emerging markets.
Consumer and packaged food stocks can keep rallying. As we approach another debt-ceiling crisis, these stocks are good places to invest in. The whole sector. They are resilient. People take comfort in their favourite brand, from Campbell's soup to Hershey's chocolate. Consumers still buy them despite higher prices. Supply chain problems have been solved and freight costs have fallen, too. Raw costs like paper (cardboard) are falling, though such companies have existing purchase contracts. There's still room to run.
(Past Top Pick Oct. 10, 2017, Up 4%) Hasn't done much in the past year. A global leader in snacks, which grow faster than other consumer staples. Likes it as secular play for growth in emerging markets, with 40% of revenues there, and 60% outside North America. Starting to see some improvement, but watch the strength of the US dollar which pressure EM. Got a new CEO in December, who is reinvesting the business to grow the topline.