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MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC Common StockMDLZPAST TOP PICKMay 18, 2021Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
It pulled back due to a new obesity drug with concerns that this may reduce consumption of their products which are mainly snacks - it leads in biscuits and chocolate. However there is lots of brand loyalty and it is branching out into different categories. There is long term growth with 35% of its revenue coming from emerging markets. It is at a good entry point.
#1 global share in biscuits. #2 in chocolate, and growing its share. Very little private label competition in biscuits and chocolate, huge brand loyalty. A name to own for the decade. Increased both prices and volume. EM is higher growth, but cyclical. Divesting and redeploying capital. Raised EPS guidance to 12% YOY. Reasonable multiple. Yield is 2.38%.
(Analysts’ price target is $82.44)#1 in biscuits and #2 in chocolate behind Mars and gaining share. Benefited during Covid when people ate more snacks. Consumers keep buying established brands like theirs. They raised prices and have pricing power, so volumes rose. Expanding into cake and pastries and emerging markets.
Consumer and packaged food stocks can keep rallying. As we approach another debt-ceiling crisis, these stocks are good places to invest in. The whole sector. They are resilient. People take comfort in their favourite brand, from Campbell's soup to Hershey's chocolate. Consumers still buy them despite higher prices. Supply chain problems have been solved and freight costs have fallen, too. Raw costs like paper (cardboard) are falling, though such companies have existing purchase contracts. There's still room to run.
(A Top Pick May 13/20, Up 29%) Has owned this for years and will hang on. They posted a good quarter recently. When the pandemic hit, consumers stuck to big brands like Ritz Crackers, but MDLZ also attracted new customers. So, MDLZ advertised to keep and attract customers which paid off with organic growth. The valuation gap between MDLZ and global staples like Pepsi will close over time. Too pricey now, so buy on dips. 40% of business is in emerging markets and will grow further there.