MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO)

30.89

+0.22 (0.72%)

as of Nov 14, 2025, 9:00:00 pm Market Open.

258 watching

BUY

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

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COMMENT

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 32%) Trading at a 40% or almost $600 million yearly of free cash flow yield. But debt to cash flow is 4x. They know that, so they're paying down debt. He projects that to be 2x in 2.5 years. At that time, they can pay a generous dividend or privatize.

TOP PICK

(See his other comments this day.) Trading at near 40% free cash flow yield. They have 68 years of production. They're paying down debt with their hefty cash flow. They can privatize down the road. (Analysts’ price target is $7.57)

WAIT

The debt is high (95% of equity) but they are working through it. He likes the company. It will react if we get $70 oil. It could be a 10 bagger! People have to take a long term nature on these things. He would take a look at it in October. (Analysts’ price target is $7.63)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.

WAIT

A fall in WTI prices has not helped. The debt is very high, but have paid down a large amount. He is doing more research to see what is the appropriate debt level they should have. He will wait.

TOP PICK

They simply have the highest beta to rising oil prices. By next year, two-thirds of their production goes directly to the US Gulf Coast and getting preferential pricing. They are trading at a 31% yield on free cash-flow. Great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.34)

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BUY

He's trimmed his energy holdings to 5%, but is now buying back because energy is coming back. MEG is his top choice here and bought some last week. MEG is the most undervalued Canadian energy stock. Oil though can be volatile.

BUY

All oil stocks have had a nice bounce-back. The risk behind crude is over and upside is coming. He'd buy this and oil stocks.

BUY

MEG was down on release of Q4 results. It gives exposure to heavy oil in Alberta. They can keep production cap and generate $527M in free cashflow based on $60 oil next year. If they chose to buyback stock, they could purchase 36% of their shares outstanding in 1 year. They are focusing on delevering the company. They can service their current debt and thinks they may be better off to buyback shares. Extremely undervalued.

TOP PICK

The street is not appreciating how much cash flow this company is generating. The balance sheet at $55 oil or higher is absolutely not an issue. Yield = 0.0% (Analysts’ price target is $7.78)

COMMENT

What happened with Husky? He has to be vague. HSE-T stepping away from its tender of MEG-T was not about Alberta curtailment risk. It was not about the lack of pipeline progress. Rumours suggest 60% of the shares were tendered. So it makes him think it was something too sensitive to be officially released. Perhaps there could have been an outside entity or government that would not allow Husky to purchase MEG. That is as far has he is going. MEG has been a huge winner for the production curtailment as the WCS differentials have tightened.

TOP PICK

The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)

WATCH

It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.

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MEG Energy Corp (MEG.TO)