Metlife (MET)

(A Top Pick Oct 11/16. Up 17.29%.) The old high for this stock is quite a bit higher than it is right now, so 17% doesn’t cut the ice for him. Kind of a drop in the bucket.

They have this amazing franchise and could just never quite get all the wheels spinning in the same direction at the same time. He thinks they have now found a little more religion in that sense. Earnings numbers coming out of the life group have not been so bad. Technically, the chart shows a nice cup, which is not a bad formation. They have a very good core franchise. Thinks you can hang onto your holdings and you will realize some value.

His model price is $73.24, representing an upside of 30%. In a rising interest rate environment, this is a sector that you can hide in. Dividend yield of 2.9% (Analysts’ price target is $60.)

One of the blue-chip, Cadillac financial service companies. These companies have struggled during this very low interest rate environment. Ultimately, over the next 2-3 years, interest rates will be higher, which is manna from heaven for companies like this. They are taking some strategic initiatives to break off parts of their retail annuity business into a separate company. That would help to unlock value.

All the lifecos need higher rates. They have obligations 5-25 years out. Most obligations were entered into when rates were higher. Because of that, there is a mismatch. That is why you see lifecos having to take capital hits on their balance sheets. We don’t know when that is going to end.

A very attractive 3 to 5 year play. Looking at insurance companies, this would be the top, if not one of the top 2 you would want to hold. They have lots of money and are in good shape. Very, very solid.

Interest rates help insurance companies. He likes this industry and this stock, but it will not get the growth you want, but it will grow its dividend. It is a good way to diversify within the financial sector.

An American lifeco? He likes US life insurers a little more than the Canadian companies. However, they’ve both come down in the last little while, given that yields have come off. The one he owns and still likes is MetLife (MET-N). Shares are trading at under 1X BV, one of the cheaper ones among the large cap names.

MetLife (MET-N) or Prudential Life (PRU-N)? When you are building a diversified portfolio, within financials, if you own a bank, only 1 or 2 lifecos is just as good. He can’t really choose between these 2, and in fact would own both of them. Both are going to move in similar directions, and both will benefit from rising interest rates.

It would definitely benefit from higher interest rates, which we are ahead for this year. The stock is cheap. It does not have much of a dividend because they were dissuaded from paying one. (Analysts’ target: $59.50).

One of the biggest life insurance companies in the US. It has gone nowhere in 10 years. One of the problems is that it was designated as strategically important in the US and that is being appealed. He thinks the ruling will be overturned. They are spinning out their retail life insurance business. (Analysts’ target: $59.50).

He likes this on the back of interest rates moving higher. Recently, interest rates have started to calm down on dovish Fed talk, however expects they will move higher. Trading at about 10X forward earnings with a 10% growth rate. BV is under 1X, so it is a pretty decently valued name. He likes this one a lot.

Prudential (PRU-N), Metropolitan Life (MET-N) or a US bank? He likes financials for the long haul. The only group that has not fully recovered from the 2008 downturn. However, there has been a tremendous run up since the election on the hopes for higher interest rates because of stronger growth from some of the Trump policies and less regulations. He likes them both. They are both trading close to BV. However, insurance is becoming more and more of a commodity business, so he thinks he would give a little edge to this one for being bigger. Currently he likes the life insurers because the banks have run up so much.

He likes the financials in the US. Life insurers are going to benefit the most from rising interest rates and a steepening yield curve. This is the largest US life insurer, and one of the largest financial services companies in the US. A pretty strong global brand, very solid financial balance sheet and a very large distribution network. There is also an easing of the regulatory environment. About 3 months ago, they announced a shareholder friendly $3 billion buyback program. Trading pretty cheap at 10X PE. Dividend yield of 2.95%. (Analysts’ price target is $60.03.)

MET-N vs. PRU-N. They will get a nice tailwind from a steeper rate curve. He prefers MS-N or GS-N to these two.