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Stockchase InsightsMethanex CorpMX.TOBUYFeb 03, 2023

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

Earnings per share were 73c, beating estimates of 37c by a wide margin.
Sales of $986M beat estimates by 4%.
Earnings did fall year over year as prices fell about 16%, even as production increased.
The company continues to buy back its own stock.
The new incoming CEO sounded confident for 2023 and about 30% earnings growth is expected this year.
The market has responded well to these better-than-expected results. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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$67.42

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$78.72

As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 27/23, Up 1.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with MX is stalling. To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $51) to $55 at this time.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 08/22, Up 29%)

He took profits when it started to rally. A solid company though and will do well in the second half of 2023. Weak natural gas prices benefit Methanex by lowering their costs. China's recovery Will benefit commodity stocks like this, but it will take time.

DON'T BUY

Does not own shares.
Proxy to economic growth across economy.
Basic component in large variety of retail products.
China growth in China slowing.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

COMMENT

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate MX, the largest supplier of methanol to international markets, as a TOP PICK. The company just released earnings, beating analyst expectations by 20%. Production in the quarter was slowed due to extended turnaround times in several key regions, but this should be resolved shortly. It trades at 13x earnings and 1.5x book value. It has used some cash reserves to prudently retire debt and buy back shares. We recommend maintaining a stop-loss at $51, looking to achieve $78 — upside potential over 30%. Yield 1.0%

(Analysts’ price target is $78.17)

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

As the largest supplier of methanol to international markets, we select MX as a TOP PICK. The company just announced the first bio-methanol marine vessel voyage that opens the door to low-emission marine transport. It trades at 9x earnings and 1.5x book value. It has been some cash reserves to prudently retire debt and buy back shares. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $51, looking to achieve $78 — upside potential over 21%. Yield 1.0%

(Analysts’ price target is $78.69)

COMMENT

Likes it. He just took profits. Natural gas is driving shares, and nat gas prices are down now, so MX shares are up. It's a solid performer, but if a recession happens, say 6 months down the road, this will be a headwind.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 03/21, Down 11%) Tough. He sold, recognizing peak of earnings cycle had come and gone. The cycle for this industry is wild.

DON'T BUY

The group as a whole has been tougher with weak relative strength. This one kept making lower lows. Not participating in this rally. Avoid. See his Top Picks.

TOP PICK

In general the price of methanol tracks the price of oil and should go higher. Natural gas is the feeder stock into methanol. As prices ease this should be good for Methanex. Transportation costs are dropping so costs to ship methanol will drop and therefore costs for Methanex. Buy 6 Hold 5 Sell 2 (Analysts’ price target is $63.06)

PARTIAL SELL

Cyclical or core? Cyclical. He's been trimming. Depends on industrial production, which has peaked. From Q2 reporting onwards, methanex prices should get softer. Wild card is European peer operations are shut due to low price of nat gas, creating supply constraint. Buying back stock, increasing dividend.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 04/21, Up 47%) World leader, with a 14% market share. Uniquely advantaged, as a lot of the European rivals are facing astronomical natural gas prices. $7 EPS expected this year, and that's not the peak. Sees upside, despite good performance already.

DON'T BUY

Very whippy, counterintuitive. Tough to play. In favour right now, and tends to track oil prices. Global production issues. Buy it when no one wants it. But seriously, leave it for someone else.

DON'T BUY

He tries to stay away from commodity-type names. They have too much volatility.

TOP PICK

Prolific free cashflow throughout the cycle. Earnings poised to grow another 74% in the next quarter. Expects a lot of share buybacks. Good upside from here. Yield is 1.08%. (Analysts’ price target is $52.46)

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