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TSE:OTEX
This company has been competing well through good acquisitions and he thinks it is well managed. Due to a lack of consistency in earnings it tends to keep the valuation multiples pretty low. This last quarter was great and the forecast looks promising. He is watching this closely and thinks it is an acquisition target (but has thought so for 10 years).
It has a lovely balance sheet. The problem is with the earnings and the intrinsic value of the company. Forecasts since 2014 show a steady progression in earnings but just a modest progression. He has only seen an increase in fair market value of 9% since then. He would wait for a setback. Wait for it to pull back to $40.
They just announced a dispute with the IRS which affected the stock price today. He expects this to take years to resolve. Canadian software stocks have done very well over time. He would be a buyer on dips, and today’s news created a dip, so he would buy. The model price is $63, which gives a 26% upside from the current price. He would plan to hold this for longer than 5 years. 22. Amazon (AMZN-O)(Doesn’t Own)(Don’t Buy). If the S&P goes higher, certainly Amazon will go higher. It has positive equity, but it is too expensive for a value investor.
He loves the software space. Once you hook a client to use your software, they never stop using it. This business generates a lot of cash. OTEX will generate $1 billion of operating cash flow in the next three years. They've done a great job growing EBITDA per share. OTEX is cheap consider 11x EBITDA vs. 17x among U.S. peers. Has had dividend growth for the past five years. (Analysts' price target: $55.07)
Makes software for companies to be more efficient. Has grown by acquisitions and the market is waiting for them to show how well they are doing. Does pay a dividend. Thinks there is great value here. Likes the fact that most of their earnings are coming outside Canada. (Analysts' price target $55.02)
(Past Top Pick, Feb.15, 2018, Up 15%) They grow by acquisition. They did a great migration to a cloud-based business. Valuations are cheap. Trades at 10x forward earnings and cash flow at 12x earnings.