Paramount Resources (POU.TO)

They get a premium to Western Canadian Select oil for their liquids. They missed their last quarter due to weather and their facilities, which is short-term in nature. So, the stock has pulled back under $15, which is a definite buy. This is midjudged as a gas stock. An energy play. (Analysts' price target: $21.22)

He would not own this stock. They have too much operational risk. Their funding is dependent on asset sales and management is vague on where future value is going to come from.

Seasonality, gassy stocks tends to be quite positive this time of year, from September through until the end of the year. This is showing some encouraging signs. Technically, it has just broken above resistance level and has established an upward trend. Also, it is outperforming the market. Momentum indicators are positive. If you own, stick with it until approximately the 2^nd week in December.

They have had a wild record. Management has done a fantastic job of selling assets. You want this management backing you in an energy bull market.

Has been a great performer. He would say this had 3 lives in the last year. 1.) A poor performance in 2016 when it got caught in low commodity prices forcing them to sell almost $3 billion in assets to pare down from 60,000 to 10,000 BOE’s a day. 2.) Being a liquids rich producer grew the 10,000 to 30,000. Executed according to plan and the stock has probably gone from $13 to almost $25 through that process. 3.) Just acquired Apache Canada and merged with Trilogy, and now back to 90,000 BOE’s a day. (Analysts’ price target of $25.)

(Market Call Minute.)

This has had a nice move over the last year. They’ve shed some non-core assets.

They did a good deal with VII-T. They build long term assets before the stock got beat up. It has recovered nicely. If the price of oil comes down then it is possible after the winter we could see lower prices of $4-5. Hold off and wait until about late Q2 of this year.

An interesting company. Most of their value comes from its new position in Seven Generations (VII-T). Feels there is an opportunity in this story. Management team has an excellent track record of finding assets.

(Market Call Minute.) Made a major fabulous asset sale, and can now pay off all their debt. There is about 11,000 BOE’s a day of production. If this backed off to the $7-$8 range, it would be a Buy. Under $10, it is something to look at.

Short term we have a nice little trend. Seasonality kicks in at the end of August for Nat Gas. It has bottomed and then a slow rocket up. We will eventually see energy start to bottom. We are in the short seasonality for oil right now. It is also tied to the US$. Risk management is really important here.

In the process of going through a transaction of selling off their crown jewels to Seven Generations (VII-T), and expects the deal to close in the next 4-5 weeks. Going forward, this is going to be a holding company with a half a dozen or so holdings, the biggest being Seven Gens. Outside of that holding company status, there is a producer as well, and they will be trying to grow their production. It is a much better holding now than it was 2 months ago. (See Top Picks.)

Has a lot of respect for the family behind this company. This business is predicated upon higher commodity prices than what we see today. The goal for a commodity business is for them to get stronger through a downturn, not having to sell one of their best assets. Doesn’t think they proactively manage their balance sheet, but made some decisions around facilities and infrastructure, that if oil had stayed at $100, it would have looked really smart. With oil at $30, it almost cost them their legacy.

It has a rounded bottom. We are now starting to make slightly higher lows. If it breaks $17 then we have a complete rounded bottom. These guys have cut costs and they can operate with lower commodity prices. This one is prepared and it is now okay for it to go forward with the current commodity prices.

Gas focused. Was one of the outliers last week. A debt laden company, but has a lot of levers it can pull. Improved last week as people got the impression that equity markets were once again open for companies to raise capital. He is not sure that applies to this company. The large shareholders in this company are much more interested in riding out the cycle as opposed to impairing their company with fire sale prices for their assets. Thinks it will be one of the preferred names to play in a recovering natural gas environment.