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Rock Energy Inc. (RE.TO)

COMMENT

The day is gone when they are drilling to try and find a huge 5000 barrel a day well. This is now a manufacturing process. They drill a well and it comes online at 60-80 barrels. After a while it declines down to something like 40-50 barrels a day, and then stays fairly steady. They then try to enhance that production through water, polymer or some kind of enhancement. This company has a polymer flood in Saskatchewan and will be getting a royalty credit. It takes a royalty down from 25% to 2%. Cash flow numbers look great.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Still holds it. It is rock solid. Management keeps guiding and hitting higher numbers. Have lots of drilling locations in inventory. It might have a period of consolidation, but management are doing a fantastic job. There is a strong seasonality to oil and gas.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute) Transitioning into gas plays. High productivity names. He trades it.

TOP PICK

Management just continues to meet and exceed their expectations. Alberta and Saskatchewan area. Light and heavy oil. Great management team. Great things in terms of growing production and low decline rates. Water flood project in Saskatchewan should get them a royalty credit. Cash flow will go up to $2 range. Really good at maximizing their netbacks. Leased their own rail cars a few years ago. Doesn’t think they will be around for long. They will be taken over by a dividend payer.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 2/13. Up 210.16%.) Liked the heavy oil play. Had adopted a “crude by rail” policy to overcome the pipeline bottlenecking issues. Firing on all cylinders right now. He can see cash flow eclipsing $1-$1.50 a share next year, followed by a higher number the year after.

BUY

Continues to love the story. Recently added some light oil to their product mix. Principally a heavy oil producer in the east central Alberta and west central Saskatchewan area. Have a great play in Mantario. Still trading at 3X cash flow. Conservatively financed and a very good balance sheet.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 2/13. Down 1.63%.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 2/13. Down 4.88 %.)

TOP PICK

(See comment on heavy oil.) Produces oil in the Lloydminster region. Shipping their crude via rail. Great play dynamics. Low-costs. It limited debt in 2012 and has a reserve NAV of $2.85. Trading at 3X cash flow. Expects to see a double in the stock price.

SELL

Was a previous owner, but hasn’t followed this one closely for the last couple of years. Believes this is an oil producer with very high costs. With the price of oil and the fact that costs are fairly high, he would not be a holder.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sept 14/09. Up 103.18%.) Sold out of this one but may go back in sometime.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Mar 24/10, Up 2.4%) Still likes. Been little to get to get them started. It’s been a wet season. Trading at a reasonable multiple on existing production. Will be drilling their first horizontal well in September, which will be a huge catalyst (news in late October)
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Mar 24/10, Up 0.48%) Still likes it. Performed inline with the energy index. Sees really meaningful upside potential. Should have results in 2 months.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has had a good run. If you saw up old back in the order of 10% or so, it would be a Buy.
TOP PICK
Will produce about 4000 BOE's a day of heavy oil. Trades at a very cheap multiple of about 4X cash flow on this year's production. Have very significant testing at 2 natural gas zones in an area that is surrounded by industry leaders. If 10% of their acreage works it would triple their current reserves.
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