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TSE:RY
"Baby with bathwater." Net interest margin compression, credit provisions picking up. Credit cycles follow interest cycles like night follows day. Nothing likely to derail the dividend, verging on 5% and growing at 7-8%. HSBC acquisition will cement leading position further in Canadian banking.
Good time to purchase shares with price down.
Recently beat analyst expectations on quarterly report.
Able to grow loan book last 1-2 years despite interest rate hikes.
Gaining market share in GIC market.
HSBC acquisition hoping to close in 2024 - good for business.
Will benefit from inflow of immigration into Canada.
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
RY has been one of the fastest-growing Canadian banks, and it has survived several recessions in the past. Although there is the potential for a recession to arise as a result of high interest rates, we would be very comfortable with holding any of the large Canadian banks for the long-term. While there are concerns about a potential recession, a lot of these fears have been priced into the Canadian banks, as we have seen their valuations contract as a result of weakening capital markets and reduced lending.
The large Canadian banks will generally grow with the economy and the capital markets. As the Canadian real estate market grows and consumers and businesses take on additional debt to fund real estate, property, investments, etc., the large banks will benefit and see their top and bottom lines grow. Most of the Canadian banks have also been expanding into other geographies, which has helped to stimulate growth.
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There'll be little disparity among the big banks though CM depends more on Canadian mortgages. Long-term, the big banks will pay you 10-15% returns annually, though they haven't been giving that in recent years. He prefers RY because of its slightly higher ROE and is more diversified.
Trades at a premium. More growth for 2024 than the others. Benefit of HSBC transaction. Great wealth builder over time, but there are better opportunities in the market right now. He'd step in at 5-10% lower.