The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy KawasakiSPDR S&P 500 ETFSPYTOP PICKJan 06, 2022
Largest ETF in the world tracking the S&P 500 index. Social media mentions are up 278% for the past 24h suggesting an optimistic popular outlook for the S&P 500 in 2022.
SPY is more diversified than QQQ, which is mainly technology, biotech, and some consumer names. SPY is 26% technology, 8% communications. Tech sector has gotten ahead of itself again, and the valuations are not that attractive.
put buying SPY put buys: 30,000 of the July 377 puts, and 100,000 of the June 345 puts, and 18,000 of the July 22 expiring 385 puts. This action may not be over just yet, because there's still a lot of buying.
She is handpicking stocks in this bear market. Choose individual stocks. It's hard work--read the reports and listen to the calls, but it pays off. Don't buy the SPY, but would own the stocks in that ETF.
Today's session (a knee jerk bounce after Biden announced oil sanctions against Russia) signalled to her that if we get even a whiff of good news, that we'll see a giant rally. We're hungry for any kind of good news (out of Russia/Ukraine). She bought some SPY calls at the day's end.... If peace were announced tomorrow, she could see crude oil sliding by at least $25/barrel.
Likes the US, has a lot of quality. At this stage, slightly overbought at 65 RSI. Wait for some more volatility. Long-term, it's a great way to access the 500 largest cap names in the US.
Having a tilt towards tech has worked well. While we get into low inflation, these will do well. There are signs that underlying the surface of index returns, the market may not be as healthy as it might appear. A narrow group of stocks are driving the returns.
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.
Defensive ETF? Not a bad idea to dip into the broader index at this point after the selloff. SPY is the most well-known name. Now right below the 200-day moving average.
(A Top Pick Dec 17/18, Up 43%) He sold SPY June $250 put. At the time, it was trading around 245. He hedged his bets on the downside by buying a June 230 put. This means if the S&P500 collapsed below 230, it would be put to somebody else. He took in $6/share.
Did 3 puts on May 10 at 284 and paid $9.61 on May 13. It was at 280 or a loss of $4/share, but the put went up to $11.13. Why did the put not protect the SPY position? Are the puts a good way to protect long positions? Problem is, options have a delta--they don't move dollar-for-dollar with the underlying security . The delta would be around $50 for him, so the option likely moved 50 cents up every dollar that the SPY moved down. So that's not 100% protection. He'd need 6 puts instead of 3.