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Stockchase Opinions

John StephensonThunder Energy TrustTHY.UN.TOHOLDFeb 03, 2006

Converted to a trust right now. Has been a descent junior pride previously.
$11.39

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WEAK BUY
A higher risk natural gas play with a higher decline on its gas wells than he likes. Debt is too high. Trades at a significant discount to the group. May be OK for a higher risk investor. Would prefer better quality like Peyto (PEY.UN-T) or Fairborne (FEL.UN-T).
DON'T BUY
This resulted from three companies merging into a trust. This is typically a recipe for disaster. Management continuing on, doesn't have much knowledge of the new business.
DON'T BUY
When they converted to a trust, some of their best assets slipped out of the equation. Have not been meeting production targets.
DON'T BUY
Had a deduction in its distributions recently. Struggling to make some production again. Fairly gas weighted. Relatively high levels of debt.
DON'T BUY
Gas weighted trust that has always paid out more than its earned. recently had a cut of 20% on its distribution and yet is still yielding about 16%.
DON'T BUY
Not well liked by the market. Good assets from the Thunder Energy company did not end up in the trust. Took on quite a bit of debt. Paying a relatively high payout relative to their cash flow.
BUY
A terrific company. A natural gas producer. The cost of drilling is going up, availability of rigs is harder to get. Feels that in 6/9 months the natural gas price has to recover. Good price.
DON'T BUY
Missed its last production numbers. There are better candidates to invest in.
HOLD
A relatively small trust. Gas weighted. You will want to see them hitting some good production numbers for 2/3 quarters in a row.
BUY
15% distribution. Has not kept up with its peers because they’ve had production problems in a couple of their fields. They had hoped to exit this year at 11,500 BOE’s a day but is coming in at 10,500. The market was looking for around 12,000/13,000 next year and that’s going to 10,500/11,000. Likes the management and thinks they will get their act together.
WATCH
Has some higher declining gas propeties. Felt we should sit back and have a look at it before we got involved.
BUY
For pure gas income trust plays, prefers TKE Energy Trust (TKE.UN-T), Progress Energy (PGX.UN-T), Thunder Energy (THY.UN-T) and Peyto (PEY.UN-T). In the producer area Storm Exploration (SEO-T) because it was incredibly cheap at $4.60. Would sell when it gets near $7.