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Opinions Robert Lauzon
Thunder Energy TrustTHY.UN.TOWEAK BUYOct 20, 2006
A higher risk natural gas play with a higher decline on its gas wells than he likes. Debt is too high. Trades at a significant discount to the group. May be OK for a higher risk investor. Would prefer better quality like Peyto (PEY.UN-T) or Fairborne (FEL.UN-T).
$7.70
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A terrific company. A natural gas producer. The cost of drilling is going up, availability of rigs is harder to get. Feels that in 6/9 months the natural gas price has to recover. Good price.
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A relatively small trust. Gas weighted. You will want to see them hitting some good production numbers for 2/3 quarters in a row.
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BUY
15% distribution. Has not kept up with its peers because they’ve had production problems in a couple of their fields. They had hoped to exit this year at 11,500 BOE’s a day but is coming in at 10,500. The market was looking for around 12,000/13,000 next year and that’s going to 10,500/11,000. Likes the management and thinks they will get their act together.
Peter BriegerOwned
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BUY
For pure gas income trust plays, prefers TKE Energy Trust (TKE.UN-T), Progress Energy (PGX.UN-T), Thunder Energy (THY.UN-T) and Peyto (PEY.UN-T). In the producer area Storm Exploration (SEO-T) because it was incredibly cheap at $4.60. Would sell when it gets near $7.
Peter BriegerOwned
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