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Opinions Brian Acker, CA
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLTPAST TOP PICKOct 24, 2023
Brian Acker, CAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
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He's not bullish on 20-year bonds, ever. And he doesn't like ETFs to start with. If you want to speculate on interest rates falling, then this is a good ETF to buy. But he thinks you're better served with investments of 5 years and under, where there's better rate of return potential with less chance of loss.
If we had a recession tomorrow and rates went to 0%, this ETF would rally substantially.
Long bonds like this one have been in steep decline, some 40-50%, from the moment that rates started to increase. Fortress-like, ultra-long-term bonds that you expect to be the ballast in your portfolio. Yields are a bit higher than before, but we're still talking 3-4%. On such a price decline, it's cold comfort.
Owns shares, but has trimmed in $170 range. Higher interest rates tough on bonds. Good hedge for people who think recession on horizon. Would recommend for a small portion of portfolio.
Jason Del VicarioConsidering his three top picks: he will equal eight them on Dec. 31 to rebalance his portfolio. Will hold USD in TLT and PHYS.
Brian Acker, CA
He's recommended this before and he's negative on this, but he is not leveraged. But he collects a nice coupon in USD each month. The key is to rebalance your portfolio once a year, say December, to buy more or less of this.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with TLT has triggered its stop at $100. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 6%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
Premium contentWe reiterate TLT, a low MER defensive ETF holding 20-30 year US treasuries, as a TOP PICK. During periods of market uncertainty this holding will benefit from a strengthening US dollar and a flight to safer assets. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $90) to $100 looking to achieve $130 – upside potential over 20%. Yield 2.6%
Premium contentWe select TLT, a low MER defensive ETF holding 20-30 year US treasuries, as a TOP PICK. During periods of market uncertainty this holding will benefit from a strengthening US dollar and a flight to safer assets. We recommend setting a stop loss at $90 at this time looking to achieve $130 – upside potential over 20%. Yield 2.67%
He thinks we are in a recession already and it will get ugly, though economic numbers and the street's perception is that things are fine. You want to be long USD and long TLT. If deflation and the USD rises in the US, long-term interest rates will crater.
Brian Acker, CAMany seek safety in the bond market, unless you get years like 2022 and 2023 when interest rates rise quickly. Also, a long-dated bond is risky if rates run up like last year. That said, bonds have better return prospects than stocks. If we enter a recession, the more likely there will be rate cuts and the longer the term of the bonds the greater the price impact. Hang on, don't sell, if you already own.
Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with TLT has triggered its stop at $100. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with the previous buy recommendations, this will result in a net investment loss of 3%
It's scary when an equity guy comes on with a bond ETF idea. He's more comfortable with the bond market as a safer bet this year. Interest rate impact will feel its way into the economy at some point this year. Rates will stay higher for longer, but the curve inverts a bit more, and a rally at the longer end of the curve will benefit the bond market. In a weaker environment, that will help. Very safe, very liquid. Great hedge to your portfolio.
John Zechner
Is priced in US dollars. The long bonds have been getting smoked, but the cheaper they get, they better. His return is roughly even, considering the exchange rate.