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Tesla IncTSLACOMMENTOct 12, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
He's removing this from the Magnificent 7. It's fallen 16% year to date while all its peers have gained, especially Nvidia. Sales are flagging in China where a Chinese company is overtaking them. Meanwhile, US demand may be peaking. Also consider the declining value of their cards. The EV space is challenged unless Musk develops a battery that lasts twice as long as a gas car tank.
It has been a tough year with cost over-runs along with having to reduce prices and therefore margins. The growth rate is slowing down. It expects to produce 1.8 million vehicles this year and could be falling behind other EV producers, There is intellectual value in their chargers as well as solar and battery technology, but most of their revenue today comes from their production of EV vehicles.
He puts this on the same wavelength as Netflix (NFLX-Q), but with even greater volatility and a greater valuation. Trading at almost 2X the beta of the S&P, so it is a volatile name. Bloomberg, indicates the company will not be profitable until 2019. Trading at 58X 2019 estimated earnings. There is a lot of uncertainty in the space, because it is still a breakthrough area. The market has very high expectations for the company going forward, so any slowdown in growth, execution problems or lack of capital could lead to a correction. There is competition on the horizon, whether Audi, BMW, Volvo or Mercedes. This could present some risks to Tesla.