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NASDAQ:TSLA
During the time of the show, Elon Musk tweeted a potential buyout of Tesla at $420 and the stock started rallying. Hurst’s comment was that the Tesla price fluctuations this summer are an illustration of the problem of signal and noise. There is all sorts of irrelevant noise about this stock, and investors are over-focused on the production numbers for Model 3. He thinks there is tremendous embedded value in the company and that SpaceX alone might be worth this much. Tesla’s cash burn is important, but the embedded value is being missed.
The short traders like this one – and he thinks they are right. They are burning a ton of cash, but have met their production numbers. It is not the most transparent company and there are now more companies coming into the electric care space and they are not developing autonomous driving technology. He is staying away.
He's not positive on cars as a whole now. Electrification is a trend, yes. There will be more e-cars, batteries and maybe hybrids. That said, Tesla needs to raise capital constantly and and has no plans to create cash flow. Can Elon Musk succeed? He's innovative, so it's possible. But the car space is too risky for him. How big will be the car market be in light of ride-sharing? Car sales may even shrink in the future. (However, battery technology is attractive.)
The CEO has a pretty big hammer in terms of the voting shares. He generally likes chairman of the board and chief operating officer to be separate. He generally votes against a combined role. TSLA-Q is a fabulous technology but you have to ask how much of the future expectation for this company is already priced into this stock.
Short or long? He doesn't short stocks, but to answer this question he would short Tesla. Yes, they make a fine car, but this is the poster boy between a good company and a good stock. The estimated market cap of Tesla to produce pera car is $500,000 vs. GM's $4,000. Even if Tesla is outrageously successful, then can't grow into their stock price.
This is a difficult case. The healthy run up on the chart indicates it is bullish, but it has too big a top in relation to the run-up it had. When talking about this company, you have to go back to some basics. They have so many orders, they can't fill them. That creates a concern. He is neutral on this.
The cars, concepts, and what they’ve done for the automotive industry has been fantastic. You really have to buy into electric cars and that Tesla is going to have a very dominant position in electric cars and their battery technology. His concern would be that they have been a catalyst for a significant change in the automobile industry, and there have been huge investments by Ford, Chrysler and GM. Everybody is getting into this business, and are catching up. Tesla is not going to always have the dominant lead that they currently have.
Has a very weak balance sheet. If there is a very weak balance sheet and a very high market valuation, which this company has, then going to the stock market to raise money is always an alternative. As long as Tesla has a poor balance sheet, that is an alternative. However, there are no visible earnings, so you are fundamentally buying this on a wing and a prayer. The stock is in a trading band, suggesting that the next low is $271.
He equates this with what we saw in the 2000 timeframe in regards to Internet related stocks. Electric vehicles will be operated over time, but a number of things have to happen. We have to have a better production for electricity. Also, will Tesla be able to operate production for the demand. OK for 30,000-40,000 cars, but if looking at mass production volumes to hit the kind of demand expected, it would fundamentally change the automotive landscape. To him, that is not possible. He considers this as a vapour stock.