Brendan CaldwellTamarack Valley EnergyTVE.TOHOLDJan 25, 2024

Likes it and the energy space, but the malaise is down to weak oil and natural gas prices as well as the federal government being hostile to this space. TVE has grown very well in recent years. 

Awful. Finally hit numbers for the first time in modern history. Management's motivated to make sure execution continues. Trading at 3x $80 oil, 21% free cashflow yield, paying down debt. 68-114% potential upside at $80 oil.

Suffering a hangover from an acquisition binge. Reducing debt, so less return of capital to shareholders. 2024 will be an inflection point on debt, which should allow higher ROC to shareholders, increase dividend, or buy back shares.

Avoid the small oil producers. This has been underperforming the market a little. Chart tops were in 2022, bottom this year. If the stock hits that top, then take a look at this. Not in seasonality now.

Recent M&A not being rewarded. Too many shares have been sold after recent acquisitions. Not worried about share overhang. Recent quarterly numbers have beaten expectations. 88% exposure to Clearwater and Charlie Lake oil plays. Debt targets being met. Currently trading at 3x cash flow given $80 oil. 5x multiple appropriate for $8 share price target. Will continue to hold. 

The $123M sale of Cardium assets is not huge on TVE's $4B+ asset base, but it will reduce debt and, importantly, supports an acceleration of capital returns to shareholders (i.e. dividends and buybacks). TVE notes the sold assets were undercapitalized and it wants to focus on its Charlie Lake and Clearwater projects. The price of Delta can be debated, but it has only been a year and TVE has long term plans for the assets. 
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Terrible performance in stock.
Largest shareholder of company.
Will continue to buy shares.
High quality assets.
Recent acquisition negative on share priced (issued lots of shares).
Non-core Cardium assets on the market.
Trading at 28% free cash flow yield. 

Questions on drill results and quality of acreage.
Has owned shares in the past.
Prefers Headwater Exploration.

Repeated acquisitions have made the company better, but have also created a repeated liquidation overhang on the stock. Access to two of the most economic plays in NA. Trades at 2.7x at the current oil price. Too much debt. If can divest assets, momentum should kick in.

Done good job at consolidating Clearwater oil play in Alberta.
Good opportunity to average down share price.
Debt is higher than market wants.
Expecting higher energy prices going forward. 

He's been adding on dips. Aggressive last year buying assets. Need to de-lever debt. Exposed to most economic plays in Canada. Catalyst-light compared to other names. Value proposition is still very good. Meaningful leverage to the price of oil. Still lots of upside, depending on the oil price.

A lot of oil stocks are just coming into that base. He'd like to see it bounce, or you can take an initial leg in. Don't commit all at once, try 2% at a time out of a 6% position. See if it bases, buy a bit on a bounce, and then wait.

Owns shares in company.
Excellent prospects if energy prices remain high.
High cost assets with good torque to commodity price.
Will continue to hold shares. 

Recent share price is lagging compared to other names in sector.
Believes current share price is presenting buying opportunity.
Canadian energy very under priced.
Good time to buy for long term investors.