Paul Harris, CFAUnited Airlines HoldingsUALDON'T BUYApr 21, 2022
Though fuel costs have gone up, ticket prices have gone up a lot to compensate. They make a lot of money on business class. So, initially, there might be a bump in travel, but the world has changed due to Zoom, etc. It's a really difficult environment.
Airlines are destroyers of wealth. Rent, but don't own an airline sock. Going back to 2006, UAL's total return is 8%, and down over 50% in the last 5 years. Same with their peers.
(A Top Pick Aug 08/23, Down 10.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with UAL has triggered its stop at $48. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with the previous buy recommendations, this will result in a net investment loss of 6%.
We reiterate UAL as a TOP PICK. The company just announced it has purchased land in Denver to expand its pilot training centre. It is already Denver's largest employer, operation 400 flights daily from there. Quarterly cash flow is growing as debt is retired. It trades at 6x earnings, 2.2x book and supports a 45% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $44) to $48, looking to achieve $71 -- upside potential of 30%. Yield 0%.
UAL is benefiting from pent up domestic and international travel demand. Management expects quarterly revenue growth of 14% and cargo revenue is growing. It trades at 20x earnings (only 5x forward earnings), 2x book, and supports a 37% ROE. Latest quarterly cash reserves were growing, while debt was retired. We recommend a stop-loss at $40, looking to achieve $62.50 -- upside potential of 30%. Yield 0%
He doesn't own any airlines, too cyclical. Had pricing power after Covid. Dealing with leasing planes, wage pressure, lower capacity, fuel price increases. This all hurt them. Things may improve if they can increase prices and capacity and if the cost structure evens out.
He's not surprised the airlines are doing well. United reported a shockingly strong beat. Sales were up 13% in Q3 vs. 2019, and a 53-cent earnings beat. They are printing money. Both their EPS and operating revenue beat the street. They're at more than 90% capacity vs. 2019 levels. Guidance sees continued strong demand as they manage costs, so they forecast $2.00-2.25 EPS in this quarter (vs. street's $1). United has the most exposure to transatlantic flights, which is a big because the USD is so strong against the Euro. Given hybrid work, more poeple are flying and travelling. But be careful owning airlines, though strength will continue.
Last Wednesday, they reported a less than stellar report if you looked at the headline numbers, but management offered a very bullish forecasts. They'll return to 87% of pre-Covid capacity this quarter, with revenue per passenger up 17% vs. 2019. On track to record sales in Q2, and will return to profitability.
(A Top Pick Apr 07/21, Down 21.94%) Pandemic and reduced travel very hard on business.
Rising fuel costs also affecting business negatively.
Believes increasing travel will positively affect business.
Travel business will be strong going forward.
Continues to hold.
Airline outlook during this recovery as passenger volumes return to pre-pandemic levels? He believes in this. Airports are full now. Soon, there'll be worldwide travel and UAL will do well, though he can't recommend the airlines until the price of crude oil goes down.