The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Whitecap ResourcesWCP.TOTOP PICKFeb 14, 2023

Mid-cap energy stocks have been strong, even with reduced fund flows from pension and ESG funds. WCP and ARX will continue to do well.

Never sell just for tax reasons. Whenever he's done this, it's been a mistake. Instead, ask yourself if your thesis still holds for owning the stock? If yes, hold on. If not, let it go.

Excellent business that owns large amount of shares in. Excellent management team. Safe dividend. Plan from recent M&A has been executed flawlessly. Low cost producer allows $55 WTI price floor. Expecting company to continue buying back stock and increasing dividend. Would recommend buying. 

We do not see any company specific news regarding WCP since its results in October but there have been some modest target price cuts since then. WCP continues to be a consistent monthly dividend payer and will move with energy prices in the short-term. The shares are cheap, yield is high and is starting to pay debt back down which is nice to see.
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Fine company. Firing on all cylinders, though impacted by weak energy prices. Can't go wrong with this.

Slight premium to other names. Overhang is its promise for M&A activity, likely to happen in 2024. 40-50% potential upside from here with $80 oil. Yield is 7.6%.

Aren't as shareholder-friendly as its peers, like buying back shares and paying down debt. Instead, WCP has been buying businesses for long-term growth. The market prefers higher dividends and buybacks. He isn't buying any oil stocks now.

Recent Q3 results mediocre. Share price has been weak due to results. Trading at premium to sector peers. Owns shares in company. Strong management team. Would buy more shares if price falls. Expecting a ~$14 share price given $80 oil price. 

Prodigious free cashflow being used to aggressively pay down debt. All while maintaining capital investments and treating shareholders fairly well. A good buy for a 2-3 year hold. He wouldn't sacrifice ARX shares to fund the purchase.

Population growth Canada does affect energy stocks too much. Global demand more important for energy prices. China weakness in real estate a concern. Potential for recession also a concern. Expecting $70-$90 price going forward. Does not own shares in company. Hard to predict future of company. 

~7% ownership in fund.
High quality oil assets.
Recent entered into Montney oil field.
Long reserve life (PDP). 
Experienced management team.
Dividend yield is safe.
Expecting a $16 share price going forward.

Likes the generosity toward shareholders, balance sheet tightening, and sustaining capital to support the dividend. "In the choice between yield and growth, why not choose both?" 

Expects a dividend increase next quarter. Yield is 5.4%, should go up to 7-ish%, hugely sustainable. Good exposure to oil. They could go 8 years without drilling, much longer than the average. Trades at 3.6x $80 oil. Still good upside.

Owns shares of company.
Very strong intermediate energy company.
Recent weakness of share price - good time to buy. 
Good assets with excellent earning potential.
Strong management team. 

Good company for long term shareholders.
Excellent dividend (~6%) and stable assets.
Fundamentals of company strong.
High quality management.
Bullish on Canadian energy.