Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO)

He was looking for a simple silver oriented stock that was outperforming the market, and this one fit the pattern. Seasonally, the strong period is normally from around mid-December right through until around the end of March. This year it looks like we are into the group once again. Technically, the chart shows the stock is bottoming out and starting to move higher. It is starting to outperform the market as well as the gold and precious metals sector. If it gets above $26-$27, that will confirm the seasonal factors are coming into play. (Analysts’ price target is $26.33.)

He looks at a number of these royalty companies, but when it comes down to it, it is the price that they sell for. They are very good businesses, but from a “price to cash flow point” of view, they always look fairly expensive. They have to keep finding longer-term investments that hopefully won’t be delayed too long coming into fruition. This has been one of the better managed of the group. If looking for a dividend stream over a period of time, this is probably a fairly safe investment. In terms of capital appreciation though, he would be a little wary. Trading at 28X forward earnings.

A royalty company which, up until recently, focused only on silver. They are now moving into gold and will be changing their name to Wheaton Special Metals. There are a couple of things to be wary on. They have an outstanding CRA court case that could be quite big for them, but is something that would be dragging on for the next 5 years. However, the environment for royalties and for these companies to get things done, is still very robust. He loves the space, but would be a little bit wary of this company.

If you like sliver this is the best way to go. They buy streams and are well managed. This is how she plays silver when she needs to.

He is pretty fond of the royalty space in general, particularly precious metals. (He owns Franco Nevada (FNV-T).) He is constructive on precious metals, and views it as an inflation hedge. This is not an unreasonable name.

This is well down from where it was in the past. A company that basically invests contracts to get the metal at a fixed cheap price. This is being challenged by some of the local governments, particularly in Central America. It is an ongoing problem. Right now, he is neutral on precious metals. If he were to see the silver price take off, he would become a little more positive. Right now, he would wait on the sidelines.

He was a founding shareholder. It is the highest quality of the silver equities. The government is trying to shake them down in a tax dispute, but he thinks the case is unfounded. A settlement will be viewed unfavourably by shareholders, but he thinks it is baked into the price and will not be significant.

Silver Technicals: It is a speculation on money, inflation and so on. Gold broke $1200 support recently, so we will see some resistance at $1250 soon. He is out of all his gold shares. He is inclined to sell into this pop a little bit. He would then buy the dips after that.

He does not trade these stocks because they are volatile and don’t have traditional earnings. He thinks of them as defensives. They peaked in the summer. He would argue that they are tied to the path of interest rates in the future. You don’t need to own gold as much right now. They don’t have operating risk so have high PE. It is not attractive to him.

He thinks it will get the same benefit as gold. It looks like it is finding a support level on the chart and it is probably not a bad opportunity to step in at that support level. It will be more of an inflation protection than anything else.

Both gold and silver have been under performers since the election. Higher interest rates would be perceived as a negative, because there is a bigger cost to holding on to precious metals as an alternative currency. In theory, the market is sending you a big signal that there is no short-term disaster in the economy. Those things are the negatives. There could be a further bounce if there was a 2%-3% pullback in stocks. This is one of the streamers in silver, and would be one of the ones to own. It does have a tax overhang still, which is getting close to being resolved, probably this year. If they win, he would argue that the stock will bump.

This is not mining, they just take a fee for services from the mines. Currently he is not into precious metals. The money flows are out of precious metals.

There is a broad number of precious metals companies that have recently seen their weekly momentum flip from negative to positive. This one is sitting right on the 150-week moving average, which is sort of attractive. It may be a candidate for a year end bounce after tax loss selling. He would prefer to wait and see it start playing out.

The space has been volatile. FNV-T could make sense at the right time so he prefers it.