Exxon Mobil (XOM)

(A Top Pick Jan 5/17. Up 3%.) It's amazing. We have seen a huge movement in prices in crude, but haven't really seen that translate into earnings for them. His model price is $85.58, and it closed at $86.93, a -1.5%.

(A Top Pick Aug 29/16. Down 2%.) This certainly didn’t lose any money in a very harsh environment for oil. It might do well in a reduced carbon world, and look for this one to hopefully lead the way.

IMO-T vs. XOM-N. Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while. However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil. Now is not the time to step in. He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk. They are getting over bought.

(A Top Pick June 9/17. Down 5.01%.) He would stick with this. It ties in with his theme that energy has been under a lot of pressure because of concerns about excessive supply, but that is actually shutting down further exploration production. It is just a matter of time before energy gets its footing, and a company like this, arguably the best globally traded company, will do ultimately well. While you’re waiting, you can enjoy the 4% dividend yield.

(A Top Pick June 23/16. Down 9.46%.) He loves this one. It is cheap in terms of valuation. Looking back to 1994, it has never been this cheap. His model price is $75.77, 5% lower than the stock price. In terms of balance sheet valuation, he doesn’t think we have ever seen the stock this cheap. Dividend yield of almost 4%.

(A Top Pick May 19/16. Down 7.16%.) Sold this earlier this year. Expects we will be range bound in WTI for the rest of the year. This one is okay, but at this stage, it may not have the leverage if oil prices move up.

We are in a world of a fairly pricey market, a lot of optimism, so he is staying defensive and looking for great dividend, world-class franchise sectors that are out of favour. This is diversified geographically and has balance sheets to withstand a prolonged downturn in oil. Dividend yield of 3.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $86.)

(A Top Pick March 9/16. Up 1%.) He still likes this. Pays a 3.82% dividend. One of the best run companies globally. The cheapest it has been since 1995.

The S&P ratings just downgraded EOM-N on the view that the leverage that they have is going to be tough to continue paying the dividend, unless oil prices can find some footing. This is his worst holding in the last 12 months. He has considered moving to the sidelines, but is going to stick with it for now. Probably a good time to be adding to your position, but make sure you add a Stop.

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 6%.) This is a buying opportunity. Fossil fuels are needed, and this company is the best managed, largest and most diversified, so this is a long-term winner. Also, has a 3%+ dividend yield making it one of the higher yielders. (See Top Picks.)

This is an asset play. You are buying it at EBV+3. In 1994/5 you had the same valuation. $84.05 is his model price and it is bang on. This is the best oil stock. (Analysts’ Target: $89.13).

With a 2-year view? With a 2-year view, you could probably buy this. Yields about 3.5%, so you shouldn’t do much worse than that. Technologically it is probably the most advanced oil/gas company, and is well integrated. This is a trading stock. On big oil/gas companies, you ultimately make your money on the production per share basis, i.e. production/shares. This has been producing about 6 million barrels of oil a day for about 10 years. To offset their decline rate, they have to spend so much money, and it costs a lot of money to get it out of the ground. He would prefer a Canadian mid-cap. (See Top Picks)

The ultimate Trump stock. When the president of the company is nominated to become Secretary of State, that can only benefit the company. If energy goes up, the company wins. If energy goes down, this company is going to perform because they are so diversified across the industry and geographically. Dividend yield of 3.45%. (Analysts’ price target is $89.92.)

Trades a little above the model price, but he looks at the price relative to its balance sheet. You have to go back to 1995 to get it at the same valuation as today. This one is one of the best companies in America. (Analysts Target: $89.38).

Trump is interviewing the CEO for Secretary of State. This is the best managed company globally. It didn’t get beat up like a lot of company oil stocks. Going forward this is a great valuation. Dividend yield of 3.45%. (Analysts’ price target is $89.50.)