Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTABMO EQL WGT US BANK HDGD TO CAD IDX ETFZUB.TODON'T BUYMay 02, 2016
Or ZBK-T. If you want to be in the banks this is probably a good place to be. But he feels US banks will underperform for a long period of time. He does not like the sector.
Basket of US retail and diversified banks. Don't have to worry about currency moves. He like the USD, so he'd prefer not hedged. Banks have gotten hit on recession worries. An opportunity here, though you might be a quarter or two early. Financials tend to perform well early in the cycle, though we're not there yet. Very cheap at 1.4x book value. Pick away at it. Best opportunities come when people are most unsettled. He's picking up some US financials right now. Yield is 2.3%.
In general, US financials have had trouble tracking the S&P. He's underweight financials. Net interest margins, loan losses, economic uncertainty. Had moved up, but now back down.
ZUB-T vs. ZBK-T. If you are thinking long term, he would go into the hedged version. It is not time to step into US banks yet. We will likely make lower lows. You are not owning them for dividend payout these days.
Will US banks do well? Yes, the financials in the US will do well. Their economy and markets will do well this year, and so will their banks. Not worried at all.
Time to cut losses? He has had a lot of questions on this one. Investors tend to run to banks when interest rates are thought to be rising as bank profitability tends to rise when rate spreads expands. US banks did not do well last year for various reasons. With the investment cycle going on he believes interest rates are likely to remain where they are, so the outlook for US banks is not likely to change. He might suggest selling and moving into a broader market based ETF.
(A Top Pick Nov 22/19, Up 2%) Still likes the banks. Trend is still decent, despite the pullback. Will stay as long as highs and lows keep getting higher.
(A Top Pick Nov 22/19, Up 4%) It recently enjoyed a recent breakout after a long consolidation this year. This means that this breakout will be powerful. Good to hold this for a while.
He likes the US banking space -- holding about 9% in his portfolio. There was a breakout that occurred in October that triggered them to go long. He is not bullish on the Canadian banks, however. Yield 2.0%
He owns only JP Morgan, it's well managed. Later stages in the cycle. Net interest margins coming down is not good for financials. Since early 2018, any basket of US banks has been underperforming. A lot to do with interest rates. Not looking to add banks at this stage. Be cautious. Look at staples, utilities, or REITs instead.
Equal weight US bank with a currency hedge. The yield curve will invert sometime next year and then banks won't make money. Don’t put new money in but you can trade them today.
ZLB vs. ZUB These are low-volatility ETFs, and he isn't keen on low-vol. Low-vol means defensive sectors like utilities, and away from growth. He's slightly bullish the cyclical outlook. This is not a good entry point now, though otherwise both are good ETFs.
U.S. banks are much cheaper than ours and boast 10% growth rates. Trading at only 10x PE. They have loan growth. They all had a tough Q4 and, except for fixed income, the banks are operating well. So ZUB is a buy.
Or ZBK-T. If you want to be in the banks this is probably a good place to be. But he feels US banks will underperform for a long period of time. He does not like the sector.