A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Natural gas. Seasonal bottom for this is around the middle of August and is often related to weather. If it is warmer than average, more gases needed for air-conditioning. During the last 2 years there has been a huge amount of natural gas available. Last year we had cool weather which is not positive for natural gas.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 31/10. Up 0.75%.) Treasury Bills 4-Month.
COMMENT
TMX-LSE merger. Concerned that the Maple group could win out. Banks own this group and one of the main reasons the banks got into this is because they've seen erosion in trading fees. By owning the exchange, they'll be up to get fees back up and they'll have a virtual monopoly. Would like to see the TMX stay independent.
COMMENT
Markets. There are some negative signs out there. There is a vast amount of commercial mortgage backed securities that needs to find a home. Fundamentally he is a believer in human ingenuity and you will find good companies and good businesses will prosper. Currently it looks a little bit bearish to him but he is finding opportunity in different sectors.
N/A
Market: It’s been a tough few months. Has been in a lot of cash. Takes his signs from the markets. In the last few days he has seen some encouraging signs. E.g. China – Saw some good strength end of last week. Last 4 or 5 days in technology, had some good strength. There is still trouble with oil and some commodities. A good shot that we could get at least a short-term rally. Put some money back to work in aerospace, machinery, some technology companies, some retail and restaurants.
COMMENT
Economy. Seeing a slowdown and the market is pulling back but doesn't feel there will be a recession. Continuation of rapid growth in Asia is going to save us from a recession. China has the ability to stimulate their economy physically and by lowering rates. Growth is continuing in North America even though it is slow. US will be pulled out by their big global, competitive internationals over time.
COMMENT
Gold. Prefers equities to commodities because of the large moves in gold price. His preference is Goldcorp (G-T) because he believes they are going to add significantly to their production. Even if gold bounces around a little he would prefer to own the equity. Feels gold prices are going to go up. What is putting the support on it is buying in Asia.
COMMENT
Has being cautious on equities since early spring. The big rally off on March/09 lows has been largely liquidity driven and this last gasp was mostly driven by QE2. With ending of QE2, stimulus spending began to fade. Consumer debt in North America is a major problem and, potentially down the road sovereign debt will create some political issues.
COMMENT
Commodities. Expect to go sideways for the summer. We are in a soft patch with commodities right now. However, she is quite positive on the whole commodity sector over the next 12 months. Stocks are a great buy at this time. Likes copper and gold at this time. Although China is slowing, it is still quite robust.
BUY
Gold stocks. These have under performed gold bullion substantially so she would be looking at gold stocks at this time. The soaring costs for the miners will mean gradually rising commodity costs. Margins have to be maintained.
COMMENT
Oil. Expect this will stay in the band of $85-$90 but in the next year, when things heat up, we'll see $100 oil again.
COMMENT
Writing options on a gold stock is an extremely good thing to do. Gold stocks tend to be in the 50% to 75% percentile of volatility so they tend to be more expensive than the average option. On occasion there is a case to buy the odd Call on gold stocks because Gold has had a big sell off and he wouldn't be surprised if they have a bounce and come back.
BUY
Development Bank of Singapore. This is a government controlled bank. Singapore is the trade centre for all Southeast Asia. Singapore economy is a warrant on world GDP. This bank is a very solid established way to play this.
N/A
Market: Oil was already going down so he doesn’t understand shy they released oil into the world markets. The US is going into a big driving season and he thinks this was a political move. There is no desperate need right now. Dynamics of oil markets are saying something about the global economy. US economics right now are tenuous. Canada is in great shape. There is a great buying opportunity right now. The economy is not growing as aggressively as people are expecting. Interest rates are going to be low for a long period of time. Likes large cap dividend paying stocks.
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