A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 2/10. Down 2.52%.) CI Global Opportunities Fund. Slipped because it wasn’t positive on the markets and was a Bear.
HOLD
Resolute Funds. Had a lot of natural gas in the portfolio so it under performed. Has more gold now. Tom Stanley is one of the best stock pickers in the country. Thinks he will outperform over time extremely well.
HOLD
McElvaine Investment Trust. Tim McElvaine has a fantastic track record. He got caught up in the 2008 problem because small cap stocks got caught up in the problem no matter what you were in. Also resource stocks have been on fire and deep value investors don’t go into resources too much.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Front Street Special Opportunities Fund? Actually a mutual fund, which is good news because you can buy it for as little as $5,000. More of a hedge fund nature because it’s very concentrated on small cap stocks. Has the best 15-year track record of any Canadian fund. Oil/gas and mining exposure will the majority of be what’s in the portfolio. If it gets beaten up, that’s a good time to Buy.
COMMENT
Which type of Hedge Funds will outperform in the next couple of years? Hedge funds that are nimble, flexible and small and that can take advantage of inefficiencies in the market.
TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 21/10. Up 29.49%.) BMG Bullion Fund. This is a fund that actually holds bullion. Likes the diversification of 1/3 platinum, 1/3 gold and 1/3 silver. Less volatile than gold stocks.
COMMENT
Mid-cap, small caps or large caps? If you are an independent investor, you’re much better off to stick with large caps. If you have a decent broker, they could give you some mid-cap names. Small caps are very difficult.
COMMENT
Some names for income? Expecting banks to start increasing dividends. Crescent Point (CPG-T) and Pengrowth (OGF-T) nave very good yields. Also the pipelines Enbridge (ENB-T) and Trans Canada (TRP-T) have good yields wit the potential of dividend increases. (See Top Picks.)
COMMENT
Market. Relatively bullish and is pretty much fully invested. Expect we will go through the old highs either this year or next. A little over extended shorter term so has been taking some money off the table in some metals and fertilizers and moving it back to the golds and oils. Earnings and market should go through their old highs next year. About 70% invested.
COMMENT
Growth in India and China. A 10 to 20 year story. Will have pullbacks and will get overbought but it’s a long-term story.
N/A
Shorter term he sees indicators that cause him to be more cautious. European debt yields are starting to move up fairly aggressively. Commodity price inflation in the developed world. Sentiment is extremely strong. He wants to be tactical and selective. He will be accumulating positions on a correction over the next 2 to 3 months.
N/A
Fundamentals are sound in Real Estate. Job levels have rebounded in the real estate markets. Single digit vacancy rates, limited new supply. The US recognizes that Canada is the next best thing to the 53’rd state. Real estate companies are not over leveraged, good balance sheets, in good shape. This year you will see improvements in cash flow.
DON'T BUY
European banks? In general he would not be buying these shares. There are questions about the banks in the peripheral parts of Europe, especially Spanish banks. He owns Credit Suisse (CS-N), a very strong bank and recovering from its problems.
DON'T BUY
Pharmaceuticals? Forward PE’s are very low. His company is not a fan of the big pharmas. Exposure to regulation is a problem. Have to spend a lot to develop drugs. Patents are coming off. Good cash flow and if you are a patient investor, you can make a case for them.
COMMENT

Insuring a portfolio? A simple but expensive way is to Buy a Put. You could do a straddle where you Buy a Put and Sell a Put further out of the money so the cost of Buying the Put is less. 2nd way is selling and taking some profits. You’ll pay some taxes but it doesn’t cost you any money. 3rd way, which he prefers, is going long S&P 500 VIX Short-Term (VXX-N). If the market corrects it will go up. He goes long this and Shorts a Call Option against it to take an option premium.

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