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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Junior Golds: - Have absolutely lagged the seniors and the gold price. This is a usual trend. Seniors start to move first and then it trickles down to intermediates and then to juniors. This time around, it is even more pronounced. Investors in North America are scared silly and have become risk adverse. This is one of the greatest buying opportunities out there.
COMMENT
Market Weighting: - He has 15% to precious metals, 17%-18% energy, 7%-8% iron and steel and 15% agriculture. There are a lot of sectors that are not going to make it, so you have to be selective.
COMMENT
Banking Sector: - Has no Canadian banks and only one small holding of a US bank. You have to watch for the spread in corporate debt of treasury bonds in the US or Canada bonds in Canada. Spreads have continued to widen and investors are looking for an even larger premium to get paid to take the risk to put on the debt. When spreads are widening the market is telling you there are still increasing risks going forward.
COMMENT
Golds: - Likes golds and has taken a basket approach using 5 or 6 stocks. Some of these include Kinross (K-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Yamana (YRI-T) as well as Barrick (ABX-T).
COMMENT
Precious metals: - His favourite commodities. He is very bullish on gold (his target is $1250) and silver (up to $30). He owns streetTracks Gold (GLD-N) and iShares Silver (SLV-A). A more conservative way to play. Scorpio Mining (SPM-T) is his only stock play in this area.
COMMENT
Gold: - He thinks it goes through $1000. Looking for lower rates in the US and problems in the economy for the next few months, and therefore gold will have the momentum to go through $1000. There are a whole bunch of juniors that haven't moved and he could see some acquisitions.
COMMENT
Canadian Banks: - Trade all Canadian banks here and you should do quite well. Do not buy and hold.
COMMENT
Small-Cap Financials: - Pretty cautious on the financial station in general as he thinks there will be more negative news over the next several quarters. There is no real rush to move into this area.
COMMENT
Silver Certificates: - Silver looks like it wants to go higher. These are in US dollars so you won't make as much in Canadian dollars.
COMMENT
Gold: - He is using an average of $800 an ounce when looking at equities to justify some of the gold projects. A higher price based on US$ and weakness is more of a short-term issue. He tends to focus on more of the fundamentals.
COMMENT
Oil Sands: - There has been a lot of volatility, primarily with respect to Alberta's royalty regime program. Companies are negotiating with Alberta. There is now certainty so we know where we are going. There are a number of short-term challenges that will increase the cost, but it is a very strategic resource on a global point of view. Likes Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T) with their Horizon project
COMMENT
Copper: - Longer term the futures market suggests 4 years out you could still see $3. Realistically, you have to price out the projects at about $1.50 or $1.60 range (US$) per pound over the next 5 to 10 years.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: - You have to expect volatile pricing. Currently there is a much tighter supply/demand situation driving the prices up. Somewhat of a seasonal rally we are experiencing now. Wouldn't be surprised to see prices backing off next month. Given fundamentals, he is a little concerned and is quite cautious over the next 6 to 9 months. There will probably be good buying opportunities going into the fall.
COMMENT
Oil: - This is a longer-term story. There are very few large exploration finds around the world. For every 1000 people in China, there are 9 cars and for every 1000 in the US, there are 900. China has a long way to catch up and it is a lot of oil to have to use. India is a similar example. Dynamics for oil longer-term are very, very good.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: - $8 has been a very strong resistance point for it. Has now clearly broken through it, which is very encouraging. $10 to $12 would not be unheard of.
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