Market Commentary — Page 166

Market Commentary

COMMENT

Market outlook. Russia has been amassing troops for a while now and it has only affected the markets for a couple weeks. An attack does seem to be imminent. This is an issue that will be around for weeks. Inflation is also a subject that investors have on their mind. We will hear from the Feds on Friday. Much of inflation is coming from supply side shortages. However, the knock-on effects for wage pressures will be more sticky.

COMMENT

Two drivers behind volatile market are the Russia/Ukraine situation along with the Fed possibly raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March. However markets have been rallying from their lows. His company's portfolios have done well since have been in great places, areas that have attracted capital and still have room. There are now opportunities in tech since many have come down enough in past quarter and are now nicely priced to growth. Their funds hold 5 to 10% in energy stocks which are still cheap compared to the commodity.

COMMENT

Question was on banks and stop losses. He doesn't recommend stop losses. May use them rarely but not with banks. They have had a huge move so they're OK at fair value. BMO is one of his favourites. However prefers U.S. banks on Price/Growth and reasonable valuations.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The geopolitical situation right now is uncertain and markets are weak for this reason. If the outcome is positive, markets could move up quite fast. The situation in Ukraine could be positive for the energy sector as commodity prices could keep rising. Could take a staggered buy approach to make volatility more beneficial. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

Question was on forestry stocks. Houses have been woefully underbuilt and he would own at these levels. First choice would be West Fraser as a giant player in the industry.

COMMENT

Question on big U.S. home builders. Cheap as a group with decent growth. Cyclical. Look for opportunities and recommends buying the index. Off his radar screen.

COMMENT

Question was on oil prices. RBC in the U.S. has a prediction for $115. The main factor is supply and demand but it is a guessing game based on what leading countries around the world will do. This rally probably has legs but it could go anywhere.

COMMENT

The time from now to the Fed announcement of March 15 will be the most dramatic in the market perhaps all year. Bad news is high inflation and the yield has flattened into "a bear flattener" meaning fear in the market that we might make a mistake. Good news: St. Louis Fed president Bullard already freaked us out, so we're pricing in the worst, hawkish situation. So, we might be surprised to the upside if the Fed does (on March 15) less than what Bullard said.

COMMENT

He doesn't see 7 interest rate hikes this year; Goldman Sachs does as they announced today in response to the St. Louis Fed's Bullard hawkish comments. The Fed's Jay Powell is a man of his word and seems to do things at a measured pace. Powell announces what he will do and he always follows through. He himself expects at least 4 hikes this year.

COMMENT

The market is already pricing in a 50-basis point hike on March 15, so the Fed has the option to do that or not. If not (and they hike 25 points instead), then they should communicate that appropriately. She doesn't think they should hike 50 points and to decide by basing it on data. Watch volatility in order to find opportunity in individual names.

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COMMENT

Believes interest rate increases will be gradual. US Federal Reserve statement of a 50 basis point increase is posturing. More likely outcome is a 25 basis point increase.

COMMENT

Problem with steep interest rate increase is the large selloff in the market it will cause. Desire to create stable, gradual path back to normality does not include 100 basis point increase. Canada will most likely fallow whatever interest rate path the USA takes.

COMMENT

Investors can protect against rising inflation rates by targeting financial industry. Any value sector such as tobacco or energy are great places to seek protection. Tech sector and fixed income investments are not good for interest rate increases.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The markets tried to rally mid-day on Thursday, but it was pretty ugly. Inflation should peak at one point but investors are not optimistic right now. This will change but when is not clear. Markets are adjusting the the year should not be horrible. Earnings and jobs markets remain strong. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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