A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Investing in China. Not only would he avoid BABA, but China in general. This view is seconded by David Rosenberg. BRK may favour China right now, but they've not been without mistakes, and some have been lulus. Beware of the politics of that market.

Let stocks run or trim? When a stock goes and goes, periodically, usually quarterly, trim back to 3-5%, depending on the climb. Means that you're taking profits but staying exposed to a good growth company. Go with the percentage you're comfortable with, whether it's 3 or 5 or 7.5%.

Emergency Measures Act in Canada. End goal is to choke off capital to the protestors. Unique test case for alternative financing via digital currencies. Will alternative avenues remain open? If yes, more regulations are in the cards, and it's another argument to ban them down the road.

Inflation. Has knocked markets back considerably. The Fed has done an abrupt u-turn on interest rate hikes and trimming the balance sheet. Caught the market off guard. Every day, the inflation numbers seem to get worse. Fed is under pressure to act. It probably put too much capital into the system, and now it has to reverse course.

Bright lights for investors. Three positives. GDP performance has been very strong in US and Canada. Unemployment has been strong for both countries. Reverse purchase agreements on the Fed balance sheet, used to prevent interest rates going below zero, could be unwound to easily trim the balance sheet.

CDRs on the NEO Exchange. Canadian Depository Receipts. Covers about 25 of the largest companies in the US. A way for Canadians to own US assets without the currency risk, as well as own fractional units. Over time, there will be more of them.

She sees more opportunity in the US than Canada, because quality growth stocks have sold off, opening opportunity. In Canada, energy has held in very well, as have the financials. The Canadian banks outperformed the American ones. Returns for the indices should be higher this year after this pullback, because corporate profits continue to grow and will do so. PEs of the indices have pulled back in the last 15 months, so stocks are more attractive. Everyone is watching the Fed; this is driving inflation. Rates will definitely rise and they have to. Employment has grown faster than expected. The consensus is that the Fed will hike 50 basis points. But if they rise too quickly, the fear is that it will choke off demand. She thinks the Fed will monitor inflation this year before making moves.

Russian threat of invading Ukraine The action of the last few days is pricing in the Russian conflict against Ukraine. Volatility remains and is making is difficult for traders. For investors, they will be okay looking out 12 months. 70% of the S&P has now reported, with many record profit margins. The Russian conflict is pricing out the bullishness not only in oil, but many commodities like aluminum. But it's also a knee-jerk reaction, though it impacts inflation overall.

Russian threats of invading Ukraine The real threat is interest rates. It's a long-term (1-3 years perhaps) consideration/challenge for investors and impacts how an investor values a company and makes investment decisions. Keep an eye on CPI data. What's going on with Russia-Ukraine is terrible from a humanity standpoint, but it doesn't impact her investing decisions; it's short-term.

Russian invasion of Ukraine Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and that had little impact on the US impact. Today, Russia has little impact on US markets, though perhaps it could impact energy globally, certainly Germany. The real driver is inflation. He's seeking stocks that are impacted by interest rates. Look at how discount rates impact company cash flows (well into the future) and the companies' growth? So, look at shorter-term duration stocks.

Russian aggression towards Ukraine We have the lowest confidence reading since 2011, given sharp inflation. Besides Russian aggression, remember that China has been aggressive towards Taiwan, which could elevate after the Olympics. Stocks will be higher in a year or two. Short-term, take profits and hold more cash. He's been 15-17% cash for quite a while and will stay this high.

Educational Segment. Looking at a Russian benchmark ETF. Compared to the world performance, it is starting to diverge recently. Looking at the exposures, as oil prices go up, the Russian ETFs have not always tracked it. Oil movements are not good enough to move the ETFs. You have a very high component of energy, materials and financials. Kind of like the TSX but stay away. Would wait to see whatever happens in Russia before buying anything. Would only buy tech and wireless in Russia.

Fixed income. This part of the portfolio is being challenged. The returns you get from broader bonds is not enough to yield, in regards to inflation. There is a negative expected return, so it is a broken asset class. A big challenge for the asset class.