A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Today's employment numbers showed August gains much lower than expected. On Sept. 6, the family stimulus money ends and this will greatly effect job creation numbers and will lead to the Fed tapering and a higher US dollar. Then, the multination companies will have a tougher time. If so, yields will rise and there will be a hard rotation into value out of growth/tech. In turn, the S&P will take a hit.

The USD outlook A high USD is a wrecking ball for multinational companies. A weaker USD is very inflationary. The USD is likely at the top of its range now.

Today's employment numbers showed August gains much lower than expected. Delta has had a bigger impact than we expect. As Covid declines, we will see job growth, then the Fed will taper. This won't be all terrible, but it will be a giant rotation of coming into value and out of growth stocks--and it will be an aggressive move.

Take a long-term view and don't get hung up on temporary bumps. It's hard to time the market, so avoid guessing tops and bottoms. Best to be fully invested at all times. He holds 4-8% cash in his cash, which as invested as he gets; this cash avoids selling something to buy something else. Over time, markets go up. Inflation is a bigger threat than central banks say. Costs are rising; there are shortages of materials and labour, and this won't end anytime soon. When the pandemic ends, demand will pick up and that in turn will feel inflation. By then, central banks will be behind the curve and inflation will get away from then. Financials, resource stocks and cyclicals will benefit from this scenario (see his top picks).

September outlook Markets had a hot August while the VIX slid. Smooth sailing? No. Banks offer hybrid growth + value, though yields have pulled back in recent days. With an OPEC+ meeting coming up, oil looks promising. He's cautious about positioning. The Nasdaq has outperformed the S&P by 8% in the last 3 months, so people are questioning where growth will be this fall.

After a strong August, what's your September outlook? She's long. If there's a correction, which won't shock her, she will ride it out, then look for things to buy. She won't trade around it.

Crypto outlook She is exposed to Bitcoin. It's a small bet, because there could be tremendous downside. She's keeping her fingers crossed.

September outlook The trend has definitely been a friend. There were 12 all-time highs in the S&P in August. He doesn't see much upside heading into September. There's crowding into just a handful of names, making up 45% of the Nasdaq 100, so there's little breadth in the market. That's a concern.

Ethereum It's outpacing Bitcoin, currently 45% of the market cap of Bitcoin and their values are now greater than Bitcoin. We're seeing a lot of asset that people want to own in cryptos that are other than Bitcoin, and that likely includes Ethereum.

Afghanistan. This will be a political problem for Biden. It makes it harder for him to get other agendas to move forward with spending. It may be one of the reasons why the Feds have been cautious about unwinding and tapering.

Hurricane Ida and oil. Bullish on energy from a trading position. Disruption of supply is a positive factor for prices. OPEC reaffirms there is more supply coming. There has been underinvestment and the market may be surprised as to how high oil prices can remain.

US Job Report. It will be another couple reports before the jobs lost will be recovered. There is a labour shortage and investment in technology will be part and parcel of the transformation for those low end unskilled jobs.

Educational Segment. A central bank is behind the curve when it does not raise interest rates to keep up with inflation. If we look at the market based expectations of inflation and transitory inflation, the expectations for long-run inflation has not moved. The market still believes in transitory inflation. The treasury cannot issue more bonds and the debt ceiling has been hit. QE and debt monetization will be part of the future and there will be inflation pressure. Financial markets will come under stress in the next few months because of it.