A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

An ETF to cover the entire commodity area? There is no single broad commodity ETF. You might want to mix and match with different commodity ETF’s, such as water, agriculture, infrastructure, base metals, gold and energy. They are going to be more volatile, but they have been beaten up and are still pretty cheap.

Emerging markets on a rate hike? There is no doubt in his mind that on a rate hike, the emerging markets would take a dip. He generally does not try to time things on that kind of a micro level.

Markets. The big things he is looking at from a catalyst point of view is US corporate earnings and where they are going to be in relation to last year, 5 quarters of negative earnings growth, the Fed on interest rates and the China yuan devaluation. On BREXIT, the market has indicated that it is not a big deal. The China yuan devaluation is a bigger risk for the market, and is less known across the marketplace. They devalued this a little more during the BREXIT issue, and no one was watching.

Markets. Stocks are not cheap. The market has had a big run since the financial crisis, and world economic growth is very subdued, so generally he finds stocks, especially large caps, quite expensive. We have been in a low interest rate environment for a prolonged period of time, and this may continue for quite awhile. Dividend yield is very important, so the companies you invest in have to grow profitably, and can hopefully increase them over time. That is how you will make some real returns. There is a cautious stance globally, generally by business leaders and corporations. He has been able to outperform the TSX for 10 years by heavily weighting portfolios by small and mid-cap companies.

Program was pre-empted because of the US Presidnt's address to the House of Commons.

Economy. House prices have gone up like crazy and he expects that by the end of 2018 there will be a housing bust. Thinks the government should increase the amount needed for down payments. There should be a special tax for foreign buyers based on the price of the home and should pay more in taxes. Knows the government will not be raising interest rates soon, but they should think about doing that.

Markets. Today’s rally shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, as you always get a snap back after a big plunge in the market. This is a normal market action. He will probably use this as a chance to Sell more. Views BREXIT as a continuation of what has been going on for quite some time. It is really a function of big secular changes going on in the global economy, which manifest themselves in these sorts of situations. We are going to be in a sort of disinflation, deflationary type environment for quite some time. It sets up some really interesting opportunities for investors, but just outright Long equities are probably not the optimal solution. There are 7 or 8 really big things that have manifested themselves in today’s vernacular of lower for longer in terms of both rates and global growth going lower. We have a lot of debt, and this debt needs to get addressed. You can either write it off, monetize it or mark it down.

EU and the euro. Feels the UK vote will hasten the development of the breakup of the EU and the euro. There will be an election in France next April, which will be very, very important, as well as an election in March in the Netherlands, and a recent survey indicated that most people would want to see a referendum. Feels people really understand that the EU is not working. Doesn’t think that foreign exports for markets is not a big deal. London is one of the greatest cities in the world, and with the pound weakening and the UK markets coming off, there is going to be some phenomenal shopping to do in London.

Negative bond yields? The entire spectrum of Swiss bonds/government bonds has negative yields. With this flight to safety, it shows that people are worried about equities.

Markets. You would think that VIX would be spiking up today in a big way. There was a big spike on Friday because the BREXIT results were not expected. However, today with the markets down as they are, VIX is not spiking again. Either markets are a bit complacent or there is much more to come. He is leaning on the side of much more volatility to come. We will get trading rallies, but those trading rallies are not something you want to get excited about just yet. There is a lot more downside, right through to the US election.

Buying US$s now? It depends on how you are buying. If you are going into the bank branch and paying 2.5%, and then 2.5% the other way, don’t do it. If you have some US$ exposure in your investment account via an ETF, the answer is yes. It really depends on what your cost of trading is when you are trading foreign exchange if you want to do that.

Dow Jones, how low? Thinks we stay weak generally heading into the US election. There will be trading rallies, but probably failed ones. At a minimum, equity markets need to retest their February lows from this year, over the course of the next few months. It could go down to 15,000.

Educational Segment. Brexit. At the end of every Bear cycle, if you are still bearish you make no money, markets rally. At the end of every Bull cycle, the Bulls have to feel some pain when things go down. Every correction we have seen in the last couple of years has been 1 month or 2, and then a recovery. Thinks BREXIT is enough of a catalyst, that this time it is going to be more painful, taking out the lows that we have seen earlier this year, and in the middle of last year. He showed the STOXX 600 Banking Index (European bank index chart). It showed the 08-09 lows, and lower lows in 2012. Today we are at about 6% from those lows of 2012. Those lows need to be tested and probably to be taken out at a minimum before we see people confident about coming back in to European banks. He then showed the STOXX 600, which is like the S&P 500 of Europe, a benchmark of all the European countries including the UK. Chart shows a long upward trend line from 2008, and we are sitting on the trend line now. If it breaks where do we go. Retracement levels are where you look for where the market might come back to. The trend line is almost certainly going to break, and that adds to the broader European markets of another 10%-15% downside. On fundamentals, looking at the last 5 years of the earnings, earnings have been going down. Negative interest rates don’t work, they are toxic. He doesn’t know how they stabilize things, and there is more downside to come. Fundamentally we have to go down lower, there has to be some pain. The US and Canadian markets are going to come down in sympathy. They probably retest February lows, and let hope it holds.

Commodities. Everyone is focused on Brexit and how the UK is going to play out over the next couple of years, but the real risk and the real fear is the contagion from that. The UK vote to leave is going to possibly trigger votes in other European countries, which will bring the euro into question. That will become the bigger issue. A stronger US$ has a strong impact on energy, but on other areas of the market such as gold, the US$ is typically weak, but the dollar is rising right now because of negative interest rates in Europe, as well as the risk premium that is being demanded by investors. There are other areas, such as China, that are much more significant. As long as the contagion doesn’t spread there, he thinks it is going to be relatively contained.

Interest rates. With the European situation, low or negative interest rates are going to be lasting even longer. Most economic models rely on having a risk-free rate, but those models don’t work with negative interest rates. What people have been saving for retirement is kind of irrelevant now. That is going to be the bigger impact if negative interest rates continue for a longer period of time. We need zero or positive interest rates around the world. We also need economic growth to pick up, so countries in Europe and Asia will be able to allow their interest rates to flow back up towards zero.