A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Canadian Banks? They are all quite different and some have better setups than others. As a group, their capital is in good shape. They don’t have major problems right now with loan losses. If oil stays below $40, then it is going to get tougher and you will see more headwinds. Canadian banks will probably grow their earnings at around 2%-3% over the next couple of years, given the headwinds in the Canadian economy. Prefers looking at some in the US. If he had to choose one, he would focus on Toronto Dominion (TD-T) which doesn’t have huge capital market exposure in Canada or a lot of Western exposure. Also, has good US East Coast exposure.

Stop/Loss percentage? He uses a point and figure price chart, which helps to identify inflection points. There are lots of ways you could use this, but you have to look at each security. He wants to see higher highs and higher lows. When he sees a security make a high, a low, a lower high, followed by a lower low then he is out. That means there are more sellers than buyers and the pressure is coming from above.

Markets. Chinese numbers continue to signal a slowing in their economy. We had this massive economic expansion over the last few decades. All the Economic expansion in the US recently has been all debt financed. We have to get used to slower economic expansion. They can’t keep borrowing and spending at the pace they have. It is the aging demographic. You can’t take interest rates to zero and expect an aging demographic to start spending. Monetary policy is less potent than in previous economic cycles. They will probably talk about June being on the table. The rally since Feb 11 will be meaningful to the Fed. The behavior of European markets signals a lack of confidence to him.

Beyond ZWB-T. If he is right and the world is slowing, then covered call strategies tend to extract a little extra value. If you want Europe ZWE-T gives you exposure to dividends. ZWH-T gives exposure to US. ZWU-T gives Canadian utilities, pipelines and telecos, all with covered calls.

Keeping share value near NAV for ETFs with low luquidity. You rarely have a huge deviation from NAV because of arbitrage, as long as the underlying holdings have liquidity. If the number of ETF units outstanding gets too low they may redeem your units, and wind it up or roll it into another ETF. You don’t lose you money.

Educational Segment. After the recent market rally what comes next? The markets popped in the last week and now we are into a period of resistance. We are in a global bear market and have we bottomed? Market breadth: The US market has had good breadth, but not around the world – mixed reading, slightly negative. Valuations higher than ever, earnings likely to be flat for the rest of the year, so we are on the high end. A lot of earnings growth is from share buy backs over the last 4 years. Is the market respecting support and resistance levels – no. He believes we are in a bear market. He believes we will retrace to around the 1600 level (25% from the peak).

Markets. He invests in quality so you can withstand the ups and downs. The valuations in the markets are high and so there is a risk of contractions in the multiples. In December the median price to earnings was higher than in 2007. Today you have much higher valuations. You can find individual companies, however. You want a strong business model, and an attractive valuation. You want stocks that can outrun the problems of the economy if you want to be aggressive. Consumer staples are the sector he would consider the least safe. He does not short stocks. He is not a believer in stops. If he buys on valuation then if they go down it is a time to buy more.

Banks. He owns 4 of the big five as long term core holdings. There is probably no sector in Canada that will give you 4 to 4.5% dividend yield, at a low multiple, that is protected by the Canadian government. He considers them to be long term holds. Over the course of a year there will be trading opportunities, however.

Markets.This year is going to be a lot trickier than last year. In 2015, the key was just to avoid Canada. In the 1^st quarter, there has been a bit of a reaction, and has seen a bounce in both the market and currency. Part of what has gone on in Canada has been some Short covering from the US. The problem really has to do with the resource side, and right now we are in a seasonal plus market. We’ve had a very good run in gold, and a bit of a bounce in energy, but doesn’t think that is going to last. Looking at financial services, we need to see some confidence if the S&P 500 is going to make some traction this year. He is at a loss to understand why the general tone in the US is that somehow there is going to be a recession in 2016. Housing starts, employment, etc. doesn’t indicate that there is going to be a recession. Not very optimistic about Canadian energy.

An ETF for a high, but safe monthly income?The only thing that is ever going to be safe and pay monthly, are GICs. Something you can do on your own for fixed income, is to put half of it in GICs. On the other half you can take it 2 ways. You can start to go into corporate credit. US investment grade corporates are better than Canadian at the moment. He would put the other bit into a US high-yield ETF.

Hedge ETF’s?To him hedging or not hedging is a huge part of his decision. In 2015, he had no hedges on any US exposure, and no Canadian exposure, including in the fixed income area. In a year like this, you have to start to look at where you are. He is looking for $0.70-$0.75, so we are in the top end of that range right now. If you are going outside of Canada, the likelihood is that you don’t want to hedge now. For now, he would say don’t hedge.

Bond ETF’s? To find a bond ETF, you start with the bond index such as iShares DEX Universe Bond (XBB-T). Go to the site and see what it holds. Click on the information part and look for “yield to maturity”. This will give you some idea as to what you are actually going to get out of the bonds. Quality wise this is terrific. In the US, it is iShares Aggregate Bond (AGG-N). You are going to get fluctuations. There is actually more risk in the bond market then you would think, with interest rates being so low.

Canadian ETF that would short the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ? He would suggest that you just Short the stock itself. Why would you pay somebody to Short when you can do it yourself?

Emerging markets? When the topic of emerging markets comes up, he tells clients that if they are really interested, it’s an area that should be actively managed. Emerging markets is not a homogenous category. Latin America is really resource oriented. Asia is manufacturing oriented, etc. etc.

Base Metals. A month ago, it was so bad that he had to force himself to do something. The corollary of that was this incredible melt up that we are having. We are 3 weeks straight up. Base metals and oil are 2 of the brighter areas in the market right now.