A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. What’s going on in China is having a major impact on global markets and markets tied closely with commodities. When the commodity super cycle took off in 2002, the five largest banks in the world were North American and European and now they are all Chinese and have grown those assets ahead of GDP. He thinks there is a bit of an unwind going on now and he does not know if it will end quietly. Trend lines have been broken on all global markets. Typically you get a re-test of the highs and then things roll over. He thinks we are seeing the downside of a business cycle. He is trying to diversify away from commodities. He would use any bounces to sell commodities. He is cautious and sells gradually.

He is not a currency trader. Longer term he is negative on the Canadian dollar because he is negative on the commodity cycle. The Canadian dollar continues to be vulnerable.

Markets. Thinks we are still in a long-term bull market. These corrections generally take some time to work out. There is a consolidation phase that has to take place and we are into that phase now. Over the next month or so, we will come out of it and will resume the bull market again. Bear markets are caused by recessions and there is no sign of a recession out there. Showed 3 charts.

Chart #1 showed the Fed balance sheet versus household debt (as a percentage of personal income) with numbers going in opposite directions for quite a while. In 2008 the whole US economy sort of collapsed on the back of too much debt in the consumer. The Fed flooded the market with capital, and they are still pushing capital into the system. However, the consumer took the cash and paid down debt. (This was the right thing to do.)

Chart #2 shows the US$ versus commodities. It showed the US$ going up and the CRB commodity Index going down. The strength of the US$ coincided with the weakness in the commodity market. This can get out of whack. You get a real divergence, not based just on supply/demand, but supply/demand caused by a currency that is extraordinary in its movement.

Chart #3 showed the median line with a 1 Std. deviation on either side and a 2 Std. Deviation lines on the outsides. 1997 to 1999, was a period with the Asian currency crisis and it fell off, but wasn’t a major correction. 2001 showed a full blown bear market, and this happened in 2008. We are now back where it looks more like 2012-2013, which was the start of the Greek European crisis. Thinks we are much closer to that scenario where we are in the area of being in a Buy zone. We have sold off enough that some of the discrepancies (the overvaluations) have not been compensated for by the market. The next cycle should be a Growth cycle rather than an Income cycle.

Markets. He is not a market timer. His style is to buy good businesses at attractive prices. Holding about 3% cash in his portfolios. His advice to investors would be to not panic. Business and the economy are still good. Let the volatility provide you with opportunities if you’ve got cash, but don’t be panicked into doing something that you might regret 6 months from now. He likes consumer related stocks along with tech. You can start to maybe nibble if we get another downturn in oil prices. Choose the companies with a strong balance sheet. Look for the ones that have fallen the least, not the ones that have fallen the most.

REITs. Is the potential rising interest rate environment hitting the sector too hard? It could be that people have overcompensated for the anticipated rise in interest rates. Concurrent with a rise in interest rates, generally, is better economic activity so your CAP rate is going to change and it is going to change unfavourably as rates go up. But your rent increases might be easier to obtain, and your vacancy rates are going to be lower. Higher interest rates are not the absolutely worst thing that can happen to the REIT sector.

Markets. Did some buying on Monday morning when the markets fell. The interesting thing was that the Treasury market wasn’t really responding that much, which was kind of unusual. Usually when you see markets plunging like that the Treasury market really rallies. It had already rallied in anticipation of the crash. Has seen growing signs that you have to be concerned and worried about what was going on. Credit spreads globally were widening, and often times the bond market is the clue that often eventually trips up the stock market. We saw the premarket spikes in the VIX, which was a good sign. It felt like a short-term bottom. As a general rule, when we have the V type recovery that we had, you often will have a retest. Everyone is sort of keying off 2 things right now, the Chinese economy and oil prices. Thinks the boat got tilted too far to one side, enough people fell out of the boat and that caused the prerequisite bounce back. What you really have to pay attention to is the emerging markets, and China is viewed as one of those developing markets. It is not just China. The emerging markets, now count for over half the GDP. With the currency moves we have seen recently, the pressures are growing. To some extent the Chinese are being painted unfairly with a value in their currency. The currency is up 29% year-over-year, and the Chinese were probably anticipating that the Federal Reserve Board was likely to raise interest rates, so wanted to put a bit of downward pressure on the currency to offset that, when the feds raised rates, you would like to have a continuation of the strength of the US$, with a move higher in the Chinese currency as well.

Energy stocks? Now is the right time to buy energy stocks. Investors are full of fear. It is exceptionally difficult and costly to get oil out of the ground. Saudi Arabia is going broke doing it. Pessimism is pretty high, and there are some really great companies out there. If you have a 2 year view, and buying good quality companies, not just the ones that are giving you dividends, you will make exceptionally high returns.

Markets. He has never seen the market so oversold as it was on the weekend. Has trouble with the 10% correction. The rally back to uneven has to be longer than 24 hours. Doesn’t think it was a correction, but doesn’t know what it was. If you look at the cause of it on Monday, a couple of hedge funds in the US along with the US$, were quite offside and they were going to shut down the position to hedge that position, and shorted the S&P 500. We have to look at our conventional way of valuing stocks. It is different this time. Stock markets are not driven by analysis; they are driven basically by investor behaviour. We have all kinds of issues in the marketplace now. We have to re-evaluate things and realize that markets are driven by weather, terrorism, geopolitical events, etc. 84% of trades are done by computer trading and only 16% are done by individuals. We have to be looking at stock charts because it tells you what the actions of investors were, throughout that time period of looking at the chart. Investor psychology and investor behaviour is what now drives the marketplace.

Energy. Company’s earnings have been fantastic. They mostly have hedges in place until the end of the year, so they are doing lots of production, which forces the price of oil up. He thinks oil is going up a little bit higher when all these hedges come off at the end of 2015.

Which ETF for a best one-year return, oil or gold? A lot of companies are selling oil at a lot higher prices, $75-$95, so they are continually pumping out production. But in 2016, those hedges are going to come off and he thinks production is going to cease in 2016, and a barrel of oil will go higher which will create a demand situation. Remember that the oil situation is not about demand, it is about supply. He is not a “gold” guy. There is no demand from India or Central Banks for gold. He would not be buying anything gold for the next 12 months.

Impact of interest rates on US healthcare or multifamily residential REITs? REITs are basically leveraged companies. They borrow money to buy assets. Rates are still extremely low. If they are 50 basis points and they go up to 60 basis points, it is not going to really make much difference. He has no problem with interest rates going higher. Residential US REITs is a good buy.

How do you screen and start into ETF’s? You have to think of whether you want a broad sector, a healthcare sector, a bank sector, etc. Try to pick a sector, and then you can find a listing for all the ETF’s for that sector. Then you need to look at what the MER’s are. Some can be quite large. Also, look to see what the weighting is; is it market cap weight or equal weight.

Maximum holding of any one ETF in a portfolio? A 5% position would not be overly diversified. If you are looking at a broad ETF, he would hold no more than 7%. If you are looking at a sector ETF, you are basically looking at one security, so he would limit it to 5%, or 7% if you are feeling really confident about the sector.

Markets. It has been an interesting ride. Really hard to assess whether we have seen the market bottom. The last couple of days have really made us feel a little bit more confident. This has been a “made in China” correction. Who knows what kind of policy will come out that will either impress or “not impress” investors. There could be a retest of lows that investors should be aware of. Thinks the present bout of volatility is going to last days or weeks, rather than quarters or years. Doesn’t think we are going into a prolonged correction, certainly not a bear market. He has been taking the opportunity of buying some large cap names that he has been watching for some time. Really impressed with how cheap they became. Had about 15%-20% cash and as of today is down to about 10%-15%, still a high cash component, to take advantage of any possibilities that still may come.

Markets. Resources have been beaten up for couple of years now, and with the slowdown in China that sector has really suffered to the detriment of some of the other sectors on the TSX, which have become terribly expensive. Some examples are Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare. They have come down to reality and we are seeing them as reverting to the mean. It creates opportunity on the small and mid-cap side, but the large-caps are terribly overvalued. Thinks Canada has been really oversold here. There are a lot of bargains out there.