A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. Lots of calls for recession, and maybe there will be one. Doesn't necessarily mean the stock market has to do badly. Stock market tends to anticipate the actual economy by some 18 months. We can see a recession in 2023, but he can see the stock market doing well, for no other reason than everyone's so negative about it. He thinks much of the negativity has been factored in: higher interest rates, war in Ukraine, China, Covid. Unless there's something new and unseen, the market's taking all this very much in stride. Tech stocks with higher multiple earnings have been under much more pressure for multiple contraction. Some of the more dividend-strong and dividend-increasing stocks will continue to outperform in 2023.

Growing consensus for a short-lived recession? Some of that optimism comes from his observing that optimists tend to be richer than pessimists. If there's a really bad recession that goes into a depression, stocks aren't going to do that great. It would be a recession like we've never seen before. It's still very hard to hire people. Even in the tech sector, which has been pretty aggressive about laying off, the tech companies that actually make stuff are finding it easier to hire people. It's not a case of too many workers for too few jobs, but rather the other way around.

Canadian technology. The most frustrating two words to ever be put together. Whether it's Nortel, Mitel or BlackBerry, we've had leadership in so many areas over his career, and it's frustrating that we can't take our technology to the next level and become a true world-beater. Not sure if it's market size, government and industry not working together, or lack of depth of management. Lack of world-class leaders is a national frustration. Perhaps government should get out of the way of business. Though BlackBerry's struggles are its own fault, they are still indicative of a more systemic problem.

TFSA stocks for a beginner investor? Two stocks would be DIS and ATZ. Nobody likes DIS, it's sold off 50%. But everyone still gets excited about Disney. DIS will be a good turnaround. He owns ATZ, stock's done well.

REITs and rising rates. The property business, in general, is going to be a tough slog simply because, while interest rates may have been taken into account by the general markets, real estate is very interest rate sensitive. There's no telling how occupancy rates are going to go over the next while. For example, downtown Toronto office towers in general are not full.

Tax-loss selling dates, Canada vs. US. In Canada, today (Wednesday, Dec 28) is the last day you can sell for tax-loss selling, as the settlement day will be Friday, Dec 30 and that's what the Canadian tax department looks at. In the US, the last day to sell is Friday, Dec 30, as the US tax department looks at the trade date.

Buying US stocks on margin. He's not a fan of this strategy, as it makes time your enemy. Time should be your friend. All the concerns we've talked about today will eventually be gone. If you have the time to stay invested, you'll participate in that growth. For example, BAC is one of the great American US institutions. If BAC has a bad day, the brokerage firm says put up more money or we're selling your BAC shares, and then you don't have the time to participate. Normally, higher interest rates have helped banks. But now capital markets are a much larger part of the business, so fluctuations are more than they were historically. You need time. He'd whittle that margin down before the brokerage firm does it for you.

Today, people are selling off everything. He expected a Santa Claus rally this year. Instead, people are locking in their losses before the next year. No one is chomping on the bit to get into stocks. Q1 2023 will likely be tough as this sell-off likely gains steam. What's the rush in buying?

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The Bottom Line for High-Interest Savings ETFs. High-interest savings ETFs are a safe and effective method of attaining high yield in an investor’s portfolio. While they do not have as attractive rates as GICs do, their benefit of price stability, no minimum investment or lock-up period requirements, and reasonable management fees make them a great option for an investor seeking yield. Overall, we think the entrance of high-interest savings ETFs into the Canadian space is a net positive for an investor's portfolio and can help to minimize volatility and maximize yield.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Pros and Cons of Each Yield-Generating Product: 1) High-interest savings accounts through financial institutions can offer competitive sources of yield and offer an individual with price stability, although they often carry requirements for holding a minimum balance in the account or a minimum investment amount and may have monthly account fees. 2) REITs provide investors with modest yield, but they are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and the price instability can at times offset any benefits from their yields. 3) Bonds have been a historically safe approach to earning yield while offering some level of price stability, although, their prices are negatively impacted by sudden changes in the interest rate, and this year is particularly evident of this dynamic. 4) High-interest savings ETFs, we feel, offer a good combination of all factors, providing an attractive yield with high price stability, and no minimum investment or lock-up periods.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Traditional Vehicles of Yield: For the past couple of decades, strong sources of yield have been few and far between, but the most common vehicles of yield for investors have been: 1) Bonds 2) GICs 3) Savings and High-Interest Savings Accounts 4) REITs. Each serves its own purpose and has its own place within a portfolio, but these represent common sources of yield in the world of investing. All the above-listed vehicles are dependent on interest rates. The higher the Central Bank raises its interest rate, the more attractive the yields are on bonds, GICs, high-interest savings accounts, and even REITs (although more indirectly). The surge in central bank interest rates over the past year has rippled through to yield-generating investment products and has created a resurgence in the want for yield and stability in a portfolio. This is where high-interest savings ETFs play a role. These are relatively new investment products that have filled a need for providing investors with liquidity, stability, attractive yield, and minimum limitations.

Markets and inflation. The Fed, BOC, and every other central bank have been very clear that inflation is a big issue for them and they have to deal with it. For him, that means they'll continue to raise rates well into 2023 until they can bring inflation down to an acceptable level. People have to realize it's a lagging indicator. Inflation has come down, but core inflation is still relatively high. Also, while the S&P PE has fallen to around 17x (historically it's 16x), earnings for 2023 have not come down that much. The big issue for that is if we're going into a slowing economy, corporate earnings will be lower and analysts have to bring down their numbers. Once that happens in a much more aggressive form, that will be the low in the stock market and it will give you the chance to buy.

The VIX. The VIX is a measure of people's stress in the market, and there's been a lot of complacency. The VIX closed last week at 22.6, which indicates people are very comfortable with the market. You need to see the VIX much higher before you can talk about a low in the stock market. When it does get high, people are stressed and don't want to be in stocks, so you can find a low in the market. You can't talk about a low when people are happy-go-lucky. In 2008 and 2020, the VIX went up to much higher levels. So if we're in a bear market, the VIX should be at a much higher level. Earnings expectations have to come down from the current 234, and when they do, there will be a good opportunity to buy the stock market. He doesn't think everything's priced in yet. Reality is that this is a great time to do your research on the companies you like. Amidst the volatility, there's opportunity.

Precious metals. He doesn't own any, as he's never liked them. Very hard to forecast where gold is going to go. Everyone talked about gold being a hedge against inflation, but it really hasn't done that well relative to where the inflation numbers are. These companies are difficult to own because they're based on the underlying commodity, you have to understand the company dynamics, not ESG-friendly, and there's often geopolitical risk. If you have to be in the space, best to own a gold index or ETF.