A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Downside to covered call ETFs? These are good stories for Nervous Nellies. Downside is if markets go up quickly. If markets go up quickly, a covered call strategy will cause the holder to forgo some of the gains that would otherwise be there.Downside to covered call ETFs? These are good stories for Nervous Nellies. Downside is if markets go up quickly. If markets go up quickly, a covered call strategy will cause the holder to forgo some of the gains that would otherwise be there.
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Resources. Stocks had a great run over the last few months so she expects some consolidation in this space. Expect some Cdn oil/gas stocks are going to be soft. Looking for a sideways action for the next few months.
COMMENT
Natural gas. Producers will probably cut back on production. Expect prices will be weak this year at around $2.50-$3.
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Commodities. Expecting commodity space to do well in the 2nd half and she is fairly bullish on the global economy with a 2%-ish type of growth. This is a time for good buying opportunities.
COMMENT
Markets. He is expecting slow, plodding growth. 2%-3% GDP growth in North America as long as Europe doesn't blow up or something else that can't be contained. He is looking for high single-digit returns. Cautiously optimistic.
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Markets: A bit of a mystery as to why the market is down. ‘Not so bad’ data released today. People are worried about China. There may be some portfolio window dressing going on. Thinks a lot of the values are still there and the market is not over bought in his sectors: Banks and Telcos, starting to look at consumer discretionary, auto sales, US multinationals and even Europe for the first time in a couple of years. With the weak Euro, means profits coming back get translated to something attractive.
COMMENT
Oil. Very real possibility that governments will release strategic petroleum reserves. This underscores how important it is that we bring oil down to a level that is more reflective of fundamentals. Saudis have indicated they're going to send more oil to the US to bring prices down. We are at a point where we are back in line with 5 year averages in terms of inventory so the market isn’t very loose nor is it very tight. Still a $15-$20 premium built into the price of oil to reflect what is going on in the Middle East, an unquantifiable thing that hangs over the price of oil. His portfolios are about 85% weighted towards oil right now and he is basically looking for oil to be flat right now.
COMMENT
Natural gas. This is a terrible situation for natural gas right now. He expects the price of natural gas will be terrible for the balance of the year. He has eliminated great natural gas companies from his portfolio last year.
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Markets: A 15-20% correction would be nothing here compared to what we have had in the past. He thinks Bernaki would love a correction like that. IT will be a short-lived tumble. It is not like there are not some cheap stocks.
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Markets: Expects a shallow correction. He is holding off a bit on some buys. What’s going on in Europe is still troubling. There are continuing to be more and more covered call ETFs.
COMMENT
Diversification: ETFs are inherently diversified. He looks at having 6 equity and 3 income ETFs.
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Markets: Some things have picked up, auto, housing, we had a good rally in a relatively short time and would not be surprised to see a pullback in the short term. Always has a combination of long and short positions. Is a bit more net long right now.
BUY
Gold: Likes gold and thinks all investors should have some exposure to gold. Over time all currencies are devaluing and so gold is rising. GLD-N is a way to own gold. He owns a combination of the ETFs and the large cap companies ABX and G-T.
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Markets: The underpinnings of the markets feel like they are getting better. Declining jobless claims. Fed benign with interest rates. Saw some improvement in automotive. In Europe we have little bit of a respite. The market has reacted to all the news but could be a little bit ahead of itself. We could well face more problems in Europe and we have to get through the election. We will continue to see volatility but if we manage to keep the manufacturing momentum and don’t fall into any major pot holes the market will have a much better tone that it has. We need to see some more stabilization in commodity prices. Wonders if China puts out these announcements knowing that they are a major buyer and wanting to soften prices.
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Markets: The investment community is still under invested. US are going to leave the liquidity taps on for quite some time. The bond market has outperformed the equity market for 25 years. He is not necessarily negative about bonds but feels he is not being adequately compensated for by taking long maturity bets. He believes rates will go up only a little bit over the short to medium term. Thinks traders might take profits to end the quarter. He has increased his cash portion of portfolios.
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