Paul LarsonApple IncAAPLHOLDAug 22, 2008

Owns shares in portfolio. Major holder of company. Recent lagging in share price not a concern. Very high margin business. Despite lack of new products, still believes in future of business. Also expecting A.I. growth with technology.

This year so far Apple has pulled back hard, below its 13- and 26-week averages, which is crucial, though above its 40-week (barely). If it falls lower, it would be bad news, unless it holds above $180 by Friday, whereby Apple is a buying opportunity. She says Apple could go either way, be he still says to own, don't trade, Apple.

They're primarily into hardware and trying to move into services, which generates cash flow. His concern is that the iPhone is everywhere, so slower revenue growth. Is an expensive stock. 

Powerhouse, lots of cashflow, great balance sheet. Concern is it's highly centred on iPhone and how well it does. Majority of revenue comes from iPhone, though other revenue streams are increasing as a percentage. Pause in performance against the S&P. Better names with more growth and better valuation. PEG is 2x, not really cheap. He's neutral.

He owns MSFT, it's more interesting, more levers for growth. Bit more EPS growth, a few percentage points higher. Blue chip also. Cloud is doing phenomenally. AI exposure.

AAPL is more a core, blue chip stock.

Never count out Apple. It and other tech stocks bounced back today after last week's sell-off. APPL was down almost 10% from its high. But its  AI, its Vision Pro headset and Apple's services revenue should make people rethink selling this. Shares were up 48% in 2023. 

Lousy start to 2024, but amazing 2023. Criticism includes lack of innovation. Meanwhile, continues to increase customer base. Still so much space to grow on products and geographically. Not cheap, but reasonable for one of the best companies in the world. Foresees share buybacks and dividend increases. He's buying on pullbacks.

Barclay's downgraded this to a sell, noting weak iPhone volumes, Macs, iPads and wearables, even services. Guess what? We've heard this all before. And the Vision Pro comes out soon and could sell.

Issue is not a lot of growth in last few quarters. Wonderful balance sheet, buying back shares. High-margin services are growing, as are the wearables. Where does the next product that's going to change the world come from? That's what people are waiting for. A lot of the business are driven off the iPhone, and the computer side has done poorly. Still likes it, it will come through.

Not timely. Great business, one of the Magnificent 7. Not supported by strengthening fundamentals. Earnings lull. Patent disputes. Headwinds. Better opportunities. Would take a look at better valuation on a pullback and/or if growth outlook improves, as it should in due course.

Very high stock price (all time high). Excellent company, but growth is slowing. Bulls on Apple pointing towards service side of business. A.I. will be strong, but not sure if will expand business meaningful. Phone main aspect of business. Question is how much more can raise price of phone. Does not see share price appreciation going forward. 

Gen AI will continue to be a force among the Magnificent 7. Nvidia and Microsoft will remain the leaders, but the two sleepers that can outperform Apple in 2024 are Amazon and Alphabet. Apple is quality growth, which he likes, but in 2024, Apple might take a backseat to the rest of the Mag 7.

There has been a shorter term half-sell signal this past week. Expect some support at the $170 level. Anywhere between $160 and $170 would be a lower equilibrium level. Some indicators such as relative strength are softening and the stock is starting to weaken against the S&P.