Apple Inc (AAPL)

Has risen on an expanded multiple, which isn't the greatest thing, pushing 30x earnings. Recurring services have become a bigger piece of its business. 93% loyalty rate. Share buybacks have been accretive.

Apple enjoys a lot of growth in China, but is losing a lot of its weight in the S&P (along with 6 other megatech names). 

Owns, but is underweight, but wouldn't add to it. The PE is too high compared to the lower-PE cyclicals.

It just hit a $3 trillion valuation. Tim Cook executes and the company is dependable. There's more upside in the second half of 2023. Lots of cash flow and never surprises negatively in earnings.

Is underweight megatech . Apple's valuation now is crazy at 30x. They bought back 40% of its shares in the past 10 years. Revenues are down year or year, though cash flow is strong. Will keep buying back shares. Growth is limited.

Hitting record highs today and will return to a $3-trillion market cap. Question: how fast does it go to $3.5 trillion or $4 trillion? There's optimism about their Vision Pro headset which will add to revenues. This stock is off to the races. The valuation is rich, but justified and can be maintained.

Investors aren't considering that their revenues are tied to China, which is a risk. Also, their valuation is high.

It's incredible that the largest companies--megatech--keep going straight up. But it's inevitable to take profits, like she recently did with Apple. Still a fine company. She added to Microsoft because she sees a little more runway ahead. Markets will more further, because the money sitting on the sidelines is entering the market. But eventually, the market will scrutinize valuations.

That's always given him pause, as 50% of revenue comes from iPhone sales. But strong competitive position is strengthening, moat is widening. So he's changed his mind. The valuation, north of 30x earnings, is what makes him pause now. Likes the business, exceptionally robust brand.

Happy to own Apple and Microsoft, but they've risen too far too fast and gotten ahead of their skiis, so he has taken some profits, but held onto the rest of the shares, because they can grow into their multiples.

It's moved from strength to strength and steadily higher. Buying back stock, so earnings tend to go up faster than actual earnings growth. FMV is way below, common with many growth stocks. As long as we remain in this bull market, definitely continue to hold.

He started to trim a bit just before the headset launch. Lots of people buy on the rumour, sell on the news, which happened to the tune of 30% after the launch of Apple Watch. 

Everything's working tremendously well. China and India are coming online nicely. Raised dividend. Price target of $183.50, which is not far. Probably can get it cheaper. One of his top 10 holdings.

Apple is pausing now after a strong run and that's refreshing. These tech stocks are pausing for now. It's ignorant to say that stocks that Apple just peaked and that's it. Tech, generative AI in particular, will have deep impact for the coming years. Let's see how Apple's new headset will fare in the coming year. He's bullish.

They launch a new product next week, a new headset. He always says own it, don't trade it. It has room to grown in places like India, Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines. They already have a big footprint in China that can grow.

It beat on stronger earnings on i-Phones etc. He likes it a lot but it is growing at 10% with a 26 X trading price. Meta and Google, like Apple, are essential  companies but trade at much better valuations.