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NASDAQ:AAPL
As great a company as this is, it is a gadget maker, although a very cool gadget maker. His issue is that competition has caught up from the other gadget makers. Also, when you have an iconic person like Steve Jobs running the company, mediocrity runs away. Great company, not expensive, has lots of cash but he doesn’t think innovation will continue.
He is positive on this company. 2 things had to happen to move the stock. One was they had to get their capital allocation policy in place, which they have done and will be distributing about $100 billion by the end of 2015 through stock buybacks and dividends. The other, and more important issue, is to convince the market that they continue to be an innovator, and if they can, this is a great opportunity. They are talking about a number of new products starting in the fall of 2013 and going into 2014. A solid company and very inexpensive.
Raised $17 billion in a bond issue which he thinks is absolutely insane. For a company with $100 billion plus in cash to respond to a hedge funder to do a massive share buyback, raise the dividend and borrow money makes absolutely no sense. It always worries him when companies try to raise shareholder value by doing a massive share buyback. Great company but they need to come out with a new product. Losing traction on the phone side to Samsung.
Although he owns this, at this point he has 2 major issues. One is capital allocation policy. They have $137 billion and they have to figure out what to do with it. Secondly, they have to overcome this wave of pessimism that is sweeping over the company. This is sort of rooted in the idea that innovation died with Steve Jobs. The market is looking for a new innovative product such as a phone, iPad, TV, etc.
(A Top Pick March 2/12. Down 15.62%.) Has clearly changed from a momentum stock, even though the valuation never approached dangerous levels. Feels a little bit of momentum is coming back. Earnings growth has flattened out in the last couple of quarters but doesn’t think it’s going to stay that way forever. Trading at only 10X earnings. Could see it moving into the mid-to high $500’s this year.
Has just started purchasing this. At these levels, the cash flow yield is over 10%. PE multiple is below 10 times. A third of its market cap is in cash. Generates about $20 billion in cash each quarter. He knows that at these levels there is a catalyst in place to have to return cash to shareholders. It could be through a much larger dividend or a very large buyback.
If the iPhone somehow becomes uncool, that will clobber them. Their market share has peaked as tablets have been commodities. Doesn’t want to bet on consumer trends.