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NASDAQ:AMZN
He has mixed feelings on this. Valuation is quite high at 66X forward earnings, but it is still showing a 35% long-term growth rate. PEG ratio is about 1.9-2X, a little more expensive than what he likes. They are doing very well and dominating the North American online retail space. What is interesting is Amazon Web Services whose revenues are doing very well and accelerating. However, they could face some competition from very well capitalized players such as Alphabet (GOOG-Q) and Microsoft (MSFT-Q) down the road. Valuations are slightly above where he would like them to be.
The valuation is a bit rich. He looks at it every time it pulls back. The most interesting part of the story is the disruption they are creating. They have huge runway and huge advantages. Home renovation is a space that is relatively safe from AMZN-Q. He prefers to play AMZN-Q through the suppliers of equipment for warehouses.
Amazon (AMZN-Q), Shopify (SHOP-N)? Both are trading at high valuations. Shopify is not quite making money, while Amazon is making a small profit margin, but not much. This one is growing its top line in the low 20% range, and Shopify has 80% revenue growth. If he has 2 companies that are both overpriced, he is going to go with the one that is 80% versus the one that is growing 20%, so he would go with Shopify.
A very interesting company. Trades at a ridiculous multiple so there are a lot of expectations in the stock. They are growing their AWS cloud business exponentially and their retail business is the core retail business in the world. It is hard for so many other retailers to complete with them. They need to create the revenue. You have to expect a lot of volatility if you own this thing.
The proverbial story of valuation versus fundamentals. This is really a killer in its categories of online retailing and Cloud services. However, it is not cheap. You are looking at 25 to 28 times cash flow. They have a fair bit of growth to achieve in the next little while to come into that valuation. He would prefer looking at this in 2 parts, online retailing and Cloud services, so would suggest maybe looking at Microsoft, which has been growing its share in Cloud services. A cheaper stock and pays a dividend.
Seasonality on this is very different than the average retail merchandising US company. He is not even sure of the seasonality. Looking at the technicals, the stock is going in the right direction. The longer-term trend is on the upside. The shorter term trend is still even stronger to the upside. On a relative basis, the stock is very, very strong.
The fact that it has made all these vast investments in infrastructure, they have very little debt. They continue to grow like mad. Moving into India and internationally. They may not be making any money because they are reinvesting the money in growth. It is hard to find good management that is fearless. In 2006, they were using an incredible amount of computer power. Decided to overinvest in computers, and rent out computer space, and are now the largest Cloud computer company globally. (Analysts’ price target is $945.03.)
An incredible story, but from a valuation perspective it is incredibly expensive. They dominate online retail spending and no one is coming close. The big box stores are having a really hard time competing on an online basis. The money coming from Amazon’s cloud business AWS is really subsidizing the retail side of it.