Rick RuleAthabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOWEAK BUYSep 07, 2023

Direct exposure to Canadian heave oil. Expecting stock price to increase with higher energy prices. Momentum strongest in energy stocks is May (driving season starts). Would recommend holding stock. 

Roughly 40 years of inventory. Successful at using free cashflow to pay down debt. Paying more to shareholders. 17% free cashflow next year, trades at 3.5x cashflow. WCS differential should shrink next year. Still very good upside.

Owns ~9.9% in fund.
Offers highest leverage to narrowing Canadian differential in oil price. 
40 years of Proved Reserves. 
Trading at 3x cash flow.
Expecting move to 75% return of capital.
Expecting a ~$6 share price. 
Company is now debt free.

Some companies can be very specific in outlning their plans for capital, but others stay quiet. There is no 'requirement' to disclose plans but the majority typically provide some guidance on this. As of June 30, ATH has about $80M net debt. It will likely be in a net cash position by year end. But ATH has discussed its plans. In a recent press release, it noted: the Company intends to direct a portion of free cash flow to its shareholders. The Company will assess market conditions to determine the best method to enhance shareholder returns, which could include a dividend, or share buybacks. We also note that it bought back $46M in stock in the 2Q, and $14M subsequent to the end of the quarter.
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Close to bankruptcy 3 years ago, made it around the corner, and paid off debt. Now a cashflow machine. Be aware that it's a high-cost producer, so if oil goes back to $40 this stock is going way down. This could happen, for example, if China's in a huge recession. Great levered play if you want leverage to oil. See his Top Picks.

A 10% weight for his fund. At $80 oil, trades at 19% free cashflow yield. Prudent divestments mean 75% minimum free cashflow is returned to shareholders. Aggressively buying back stock. Exposure to WCS, which he's very bullish on. 35+ years of inventory. Should be debt-free by year's end, so lots of optionality. No dividend.

It is in an uptrend with technical support around the current level. It is down a bit right now but don't hold if it takes out the low of about $2.50. In the recent quarter it declared a loss of $57 million but had positive operating income of $57 million.

Doesn't own either. Usually sticks with light oil, but see his Top Picks. If he had to choose, he'd pick MEG: larger market cap, better liquidity and institutional ownership. 

ATH is more focused on debt reduction. It does buybacks, and he prefers dividends for income. Rocky stock performance. 

A timely buy. It's seen an uptrend in 2023 to return to the June 2022 high. It's pushing on new highs now. Definitely the time to buy.

High exposure to rising oil prices.
Excellent prospects going forward.
Major tax loses will cover any tax expenses going forward.
~30 years of proved reserves.
Starting share buyback next month.
Expecting more than 100% upside potential for the share price.

Trading in a range for some time. Earnings forecasts are slipping, may come under pressure. Not his favourite. Too expensive. See his Top Picks.

Largest shareholder in company. 
Very large reserve life index.
Company is now debt free.
Will return 75% of free cash flow starting in April.
Expecting major share buybacks.
Trading at 1.8x cash flow @ $100 oil.
Tax losses worth $0.44 per share.
5x multiple would suggest a $6 share price.

Great long-life reserves. If oil stays at current levels, it will flow to the bottom line. Cash generator with a long history. TWM has better growth prospects for production.