Kim BoltonAlibaba Group HoldingBABAPAST TOP PICKDec 27, 2023

Yesterday, China did a smart thing by cutting their federal funds rate by 50 basis points. This is gigantic and has impact, by making their economy--and stocks--stronger. Also, he suggests they reign in their real estate industry. China has to do something to revive its economy. Also, both US candidates in this election year will bash China. Given all this, he's changed his mind about Chinese stocks and recommends Baidu, Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com. They are very cheap and are real businesses. Also, they are recognized internationally. No, he won't buy them, because he doesn't trade, but if he did trade, he would.

Great company, valuation, and growth rate. Problem is Chinese Communist Party regulations are controlling its fate. To invest in China, he has to really like what he sees, and this isn't it.

He can't recommend any Chinese stocks.

He added more shares of BABA today. It's an underrated grower at a reasonable price. It's a turnaround story reflecting the revival of the Chinese consumer. They dominant e-commerce in China, their cloud business is overlooked and cash flow yield is in the mid-teens. Trades at a 30% discount to its historic average.

With Chinese stocks, must be careful of the political overhang. Government can get involved and impact the share price. 200-day MA is flat, share price trading below significant metrics. Cheap at 8.2x forward PE, but big risk.

A trade only, but would buy no Chinese stocks, because they've been a disaster.

The question was on his preference between the two companies, Alibaba didn't get traction and there has been a disconnect between their numbers and the stock price. He prefers Amazon.

He bought it because tensions eased between Beijing and the Chinese tech companies and that BABA would spin off parts of its business. But that latter got stuck in red tape. The overall business continues to thrive. Earnings are growing 18%. Trades at a low 9x PE, and likes that. It remains the dominant e-player in China, their Amazon, and gen-AI will help grow their cloud business. The market has soured on all Chinese stocks given geopolitical tensions, and the Chinese reopening has been slower than expected.

He just sold it. He thinks shares are popping today, because BABA will spin off one of their companies, not so much this report. He bought it at 8x earnings. He sold to manage his portfolio and feels that China's Premier is off the rails, not making good decisions like blockading Taiwan.

Likes it. BABA is relatively cheap at 10x, a discount to its historic average and a 40% discount to China's tech sector, despite the political risks. They hold 50% of market share and touches 70% of the Chinese population. 

Just bought Skyworks and Alibaba. China is a great contrary play, and BABA is cheap. Skyworks is in every smart phone in the world, and they've been re-rated 50%. They boast attractive demographics and valuation. 

Look past the headline noise (of Biden criticizing the Chinese economy) and instead focus on the fundamentals. China's government need to stimulate their economy. BABA is doing well without stimulus, reporting 16% growth. He expects growth to continue.

They have many levers they can pull. They can spin out their retail operation or cloud. That's why he likes it, despite challenges in the Chinese economy (high youth unemployment, slowing growth).

He won't invest in China's ADR, because he's uncomfortable with their set-up. He fears political interference from Beijing. He has exposure to China, but through companies based outside China